Unity remains, but faith in the future is weakening: what Ukrainians think about the country’s future
8 July 16:35
INFOGRAPHICS
The mood of society has changed: most Ukrainians are pessimistic about the future of Ukraine. This is evidenced by the latest data from a sociological survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
After two years of full-scale war, Ukrainian society is showing increasing fatigue, anxiety and despondency. Sociologists confirm that in the second quarter of 2025, there was a significant shift in public sentiment: for the first time since the beginning of the invasion, the share of optimists who believe in a positive future for Ukraine has decreased.
KIIS Executive Director Anton Grushetsky notes: “Paradoxically, despite the decline in belief in a victorious and prosperous future, Ukrainians have begun to talk more often about unity and solidarity.
“We will soon publish the data of a new survey, and it shows that the sense of unity has slightly increased. About 60% of respondents believe that Ukraine is moving towards unity rather than division,” said Hrushetsky.
“However, another question raises concerns. Respondents were asked:
“How do you see Ukraine in 10 years: a successful EU country or a ruined country with a large outflow of people?
Back in December 2024, the majority – more than 57% – chose the option “a prosperous country in the EU.” However, in May-June 2025, the situation changed dramatically: only 43% shared this view, while the share of pessimists increased from 28% to 47%.
Sociologists attribute this to several factors. First of all, the protraction of hostilities, uncertainty about further support from Western partners, economic exhaustion, and the growth of emotional burnout in society are playing a role.
In addition, a growing number of citizens are facing financial difficulties, loss of loved ones, and a lack of tangible prospects.
The length of the war and the lack of breakthrough changes at the front are compounded by growing fatigue. People are tired of constant stress, of losses, of uncertainty. This is all reflected in the mood,” explains Hrushetsky.
Nevertheless, sociological experts emphasize that pessimism about the future should not be confused with indifference or disbelief in the state. The majority of Ukrainians continue to support the Armed Forces, believe in the need to resist the aggressor, and consider preserving independence a key value.
Disappointment instead of hope: how Ukrainians perceive the new US administration
In early 2025, cautious expectations prevailed in Ukrainian society. Despite Donald Trump’s controversial election rhetoric, many citizens and experts assumed that the new administration in Washington would not openly harm Ukraine, and perhaps even maintain support at a minimum acceptable level. It was believed that the harsh reality of the war, as well as European and domestic American dynamics, would keep the White House on a rational course.
However, the events of the first months of 2025 quickly shattered these illusions.
Between February and May, there was a rapid shift in the rhetoric and behavior of the new American leadership. Donald Trump’s public statements became increasingly harsh, and his desire for real diplomatic balance became less and less visible. The Trump administration began to promote the “peace at any cost” thesis, which, translated from political language, meant capitulation demands to Ukraine and a de facto disregard for Kyiv’s positions.
Read also: Trust in Zelenskyy has declined: support has dropped to 65%, – KIIS poll
The culmination of this political cooling was the incident of February 28, 2025, which many are already calling a “point of no return” in relations between Ukrainian society and the new US administration. Back then, during a broadcast from the Oval Office, a public verbal clash took place live between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US leader Donald Trump, and his Vice President J.D. Vance.
This broadcast, which was simultaneously broadcast by several leading US and European TV channels, became a geopolitical scandal. Mutual accusations, accusations of “selfishness,” “ignoring the reality of war,” and even “betrayal of partnership obligations” were heard on the air. For many Ukrainians, this was a deep emotional shock and a moment when it became clear that the new US president was not only not an ally, but also a potentially dangerous factor for Ukraine’s external stability.
This immediately affected public sentiment. KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky notes:
“In December 2024, more than 50% of respondents in Ukraine considered Trump’s election victory to be a positive factor. But already in March 2025, more than 70% believed that it was a negative factor for Ukraine.
This data is confirmed by other opinion polls. All the main indicators – the level of trust in the United States, expectations for the future, and confidence in international support – have experienced a significant drop within one to two months. A mood of betrayal and political loneliness has taken root in the public consciousness.
Analysts note that the change in the foreign policy landscape for Ukraine is not only a challenge at the level of diplomacy, but also a serious test for the psychological stability of citizens. For a country that has relied for years on strategic assistance from the United States as a security guarantor, the loss of this support means the need for new alliances and a revision of strategy at all levels: from military logistics to humanitarian programs.
At the same time, according to KIIS data, another trend is growing amid external pressure and frustration. In 2025, the main test for Ukraine is not only the frontline and diplomacy, but the ability to withstand an unpredictable international environment. And while faith in US support has been significantly shaken, faith in ourselves, according to recent studies, is still strong.
The scandal in Washington has changed the electoral landscape: Zelenskyy is leading again, but with new risks
According to recent opinion polls, for the first time in many months, Volodymyr Zelenskyi has outpaced Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the main rival and symbol of an alternative to the current government, in the first round of a hypothetical presidential election. At the same time, Zaluzhnyi continues to hold the advantage in the second round.
This shift reveals two unexpected trends in the Ukrainian electorate that were not previously apparent.
The first trend is deep polarization and limited elasticity of trust.
It turned out that there are 20-25% of Ukrainians who are so critical of the president that they are no longer affected by events such as the White House scandal. This is a stable segment of distrust that does not disappear even in the face of external pressure,” emphasized Anton Hrushetsky.
In 2022, the level of trust in the president reached a record 90%. As of the spring of 2025, it has dropped to just over 70%. This demonstrates that part of society is ready to support the government only in the face of extreme threats, but returns to a critical position as soon as the situation stabilizes.
Read also: One-third of Ukrainians are disappointed with the government: KIIS poll
The second trend is the growth of political uncertainty.
Another alarming symptom for the current political class is a significant increase in the share of those who hesitate to answer when it comes to the future president. This group is now the largest among all electoral categories.
A quarter of voters do not see a worthy candidate among current politicians. This figure has been growing steadily since the fall of 2024 and has become especially important after the Washington scandal. Today, those who are “undecided” are not a passive part of society, but a powerful demand for a “new face” in politics. The situation is similar to the scenario of 2019, when Volodymyr Zelenskyy unexpectedly entered the political arena.
According to Anton Hrushetskyi, the nature of the electoral demand has changed compared to 2019.
Now people want not just new faces, but new faces with experience, competence, and trust. This demand is especially strong among volunteers, the military, and local government representatives,” explained the KIIS Executive Director.
“Such a disconnect between public expectations and the political field creates a vacuum that may well be filled by an unexpected candidate from outside the system. That is why sociologists are closely monitoring this trend: the current period of political uncertainty is in many ways reminiscent of the run-up to the 2019 elections.
Despite a marked decline in trust in individual politicians, the vast majority of citizens do not support the idea of holding elections during wartime. According to various polls, 75 to 80% of Ukrainians believe that elections should be held only after the end of hostilities.
This demonstrates the high responsibility of voters who understand the risks of political turbulence in wartime and value stability. However, the very existence of deep structural shifts in the electoral field suggests that the Ukrainian political scene may face a radical renewal after the war is over.
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