Europe is not ready for war without US and NATO support – Zaluzhnyi
21 October 14:10
In the current war, Ukrainians are buying time for their European neighbors, says Valeriy Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK and former commander-in-chief. He does not rule out that one day the war will spread to other European countries. In a column for the Eastern Flank Institute he expressed his views on the prospects for the security system in Europe, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
In his opinion, in the short term, Europe will not be able to eliminate its dependence on NATO, and therefore the United States, in the matter of defense. Russia, meanwhile, is using the experience of a full-scale war against Ukrainians to build a new army and transfer skills to the troops of China, Iran and North Korea.
“The war in Ukraine, the revision of the US role in ensuring European security, and the build-up of the Russian armed forces’ combat capabilities that go beyond the current war should only form a realistic vision of the future security architecture,” Zaluzhny emphasizes.
Unfortunately, as he states, Europe needs both political will and time to prepare. The success of these initiatives will depend on the political will of all 27 different countries. These countries, having gone through an extremely difficult path to membership, still have different priorities, resources, and perceptions of the threat.
After analyzing the White Paper on European Defense Readiness 2030, Zaluzhny concludes that the EU will rely only on NATO and, accordingly, the United States to ensure its security by 2030. Thus, it is definitely premature to talk about Europe’s strategic autonomy from the United States.
Ukraine should find out whether it can fully rely on Europe in a war of attrition, at least as a reliable partner, if not an ally, Zaluzhnyi believes. It is also necessary to realize whether Europe understands the need to form a new security architecture on the European continent.
Zaluzhnyi is convinced that the definition of security is based on simple concepts. The first is the political will to take practical, including unpopular, steps to ensure this very security. Here, we need to understand how many EU citizens will be willing to sacrifice their economic well-being to improve defense? Secondly, the armed forces must be equipped with modern weapons and have modern doctrines, and be organized into a single hierarchy. Thirdly, the defense industry fully determines the army’s readiness to provide security. The defense industry will depend on the availability of raw materials, labor, technology, and political will.
“The war in Ukraine, the reconsideration of the US role in ensuring European security, and the build-up of the Russian armed forces beyond the current war should only form a realistic vision of the future security architecture,” he said.
Zaluzhny added that Europe is decades behind China and the United States. In addition, according to Zaluzhny, it lacks political will. The implementation of the plans in the White Paper will be based on “motivation” and “encouragement” without creating mandatory mechanisms.
“This, of course, encourages large countries such as France, Germany, and Italy to continue developing national projects. Other countries will be left without such opportunities. How this will affect the declared capabilities of the rest of the EU’s national armed forces is currently unknown,” the Ukrainian ambassador added.
He believes that it is definitely premature to talk about Europe’s strategic autonomy from the United States.” And it will take at least 5 years to create a new architecture for the European continent.
In the meantime, Russia will reform its armed forces both during the war and, probably, after it.
