The first estimates of Ukraine’s GDP for 2026 have been released: details
6 January 11:17
In 2025, Ukraine’s economy grew moderately: according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, real GDP grew by about 2%. At the end of the year, many organizations and institutions downgraded their estimates of economic growth due to Russia’s significant destruction of gas production, energy networks, port and rail infrastructure, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
In November 2025, for the first time since December 2024, the lack of access to electricity returned to the top three biggest obstacles to companies’ operations (according to the IER survey). The other two obstacles throughout the year were the lack of labor and insecurity.
Thus, businesses are increasingly facing the problem of finding labor, and in the fall they faced an outflow of men aged 18-22 who were allowed to leave Ukraine. At the same time, unemployment remains high, according to the Ministry of Economy, with a significant skills gap and regional imbalances between labor supply and demand. Rising prices for raw materials and supplies were also an important obstacle to companies’ operations. This is likely to be partly due to the devaluation of the hryvnia against the euro. Businesses also faced a decline in demand and logistical problems.
Nevertheless, the grain harvest was better in 2025 than previously expected. This reduced the negative contribution of the agricultural decline to economic growth. Demand for defense products contributed to the development of machine building. Strong domestic demand for metallurgy products contributed to the sector’s growth. Growth in trade was attributed to higher real household income due to higher wages and pension indexation, and to a moderate increase in non-food prices.
On the demand side, real household final consumption and investments grew, leading to higher imports. At the same time, real exports declined significantly due to lower exports of grains and oilseeds as stocks from previous years were not available. Government consumption increased due to arms purchases.
Although there were expectations that in 2025 there would be a larger contribution from the investment part of UkraineFacility, military risk insurance, and guarantees, this did not happen. It is unlikely that peace will be achieved quickly this year, so challenges and uncertainty will accompany us throughout the year. Overall, real GDP growth is expected to be only slightly above 2% in 2026.
