Climate change is causing food prices to spike, study finds
21 July 2025 19:27
Extreme weather events associated with climate change are leading to short-term but sharp spikes in food prices around the world.
This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by the Barcelona Supercomputer Center, as cited by the Financial Times, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Unlike previous studies that focused on long-term inflation due to declining yields, the new study shows that certain products show a significant short-term increase in value after climate shocks.
For example, olive oil prices in the EU increased by 50% after the drought in Spain in 2022-2023. In India, the heat caused an almost twofold increase in onion prices, in South Korea, cabbage went up by 70%, and in Japan, rice prices jumped by 48% in September. In China, vegetables went up by 30%, and in the United States (particularly in California and Arizona), vegetable prices rose by 80% after a prolonged drought.
The lead author of the study, climatologist Maximilian Kotz, emphasized that many of these phenomena were unprecedented – temperatures “went far beyond what is expected in a stable climate.”
The researchers warn that as the climate crisis deepens, such price spikes will become more frequent. These fluctuations are not limited to one region – they are spreading rapidly around the world through global trade. For example, a threefold increase in cocoa prices in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire led to a significant rise in the price of chocolate in the UK.
Experts also point out that market speculation and political decisions can exacerbate the effect of climate shocks. For example, the embargo on wheat exports from Russia after the 2010 forest fires triggered a global price increase and social unrest in some countries, including Mozambique.
The researchers express particular concern about the vulnerability of countries that are heavily dependent on imports.
“Countries such as the UK are particularly sensitive to climate risks abroad,” says Anna Taylor, co-author of the report.
In addition, rising food prices are complicating central banks’ efforts to curb overall inflation, especially in developing countries where food accounts for the bulk of consumer spending.
“Abnormally high temperatures have a direct impact on inflation, and the key factor here is food,” Kotz added.
The study also points to social consequences: as prices rise, poorer segments of the population are forced to consume less, often less nutritious food. Vegetables and fruits were found to be the most vulnerable.
