Lowering the mobilization age: is Ukraine ready for it?
27 December 2024 16:26
ANALYSIS FROM 
Recently, the media reported that Serhiy Lunych, who was introduced as a member of the 17th National Guard Brigade, said that “a draft law on lowering the conscription age to 18 has already been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada and is awaiting approval.”
In turn, the brigade denied this information, saying that Lunych had not made such comments and had not participated in media events or public appearances recently.
“In addition, he is not a member of the brigade command (neither commander nor deputy commander) and is not an authorized person to comment on draft laws or amendments to them. His job duties do not provide for access to information about legislative initiatives or their status, let alone predicting their approval,” the brigade said.
The Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence said that there are no bills in the parliament to reduce the mobilization age from 25 to 18 years.
Military expert Dmytro Snegiryov, in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian", explained why the discussion of lowering the mobilization age is part of a strategy to prepare for possible scenarios and how it will affect the demographic situation in Ukraine.
“Warming up the public” and political pressure
According to the expert, the information about a possible reduction in the age of mobilization is a “controlled leakage of information” aimed at monitoring the reaction of Ukrainian society and international partners.
“It is about the so-called warming up of the public – preparation for possible scenarios. First of all, this is an ultimatum from our partners: lower the mobilization age or we will not be able to support the front,” Snegiryov said.
The expert emphasizes that such statements are aimed not only at shaping public opinion, but also at influencing the political leadership of Ukraine in the context of making important decisions in the field of mobilization.
Dmytro Snegiryov points out that the issue of mobilizing younger people, in particular 18-year-olds, is not new. He also emphasizes that young people are physically more prepared for heavy loads, and their reflexes may be more susceptible to combat missions. According to Snegiryov, unlike older age groups, young people do not have such “prejudices” and can adapt to the harsh reality of war more quickly.
Demographic crisis: a real threat to the nation
According to the expert, one of the biggest threats is a potential demographic crisis in Ukraine.
“We are facing a real threat of the nation’s extinction if we do not solve the demographic problem. The birth rate in Ukraine is at the lowest level in the world, and the war, in turn, continues to take away the best people,” Snegiryov warns.
The expert believes that if the Ukrainian authorities continue to put pressure on young people, in particular by lowering the mobilization age, this could lead to an even greater demographic crisis, as many young people simply will not return from the front.
One of the important points raised by Snegirev is the limited mobilization potential in Ukraine. According to him, even if the entire age group from 18 to 60 is mobilized, the country’s mobilization reserve is only about 3.5 million people. Compared to Russia, where this reserve is 12-15 million, Ukraine has a significant lack of resources.
“We need more technological solutions than just increasing mobilization. Technology should become a key factor in winning the war. This is where our efforts should be focused, not just on increasing the size of the army,” the expert concludes.
Technology should be the key to victory
Although the issues of mobilization and lowering the age limit are important, the expert believes that the main focus should be on technologies and innovations that can ensure the resilience of Ukrainian forces in the fight against the aggressor.
“The war is now a war of technology, and in order to win, Ukraine needs to invest in re-equipping its army. Only technological superiority will allow us to win,” he says.
What the military say about lowering the conscription age
In a conversation with , Yevhen “Tykhyi”, an officer of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, shared his thoughts on lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine. According to him, this decision will not only increase the effectiveness of the Armed Forces, but will also be an important step to ensure fairness in the military process.
Yevhen “Tykhyi” believes that lowering the mobilization age is an inevitable and necessary step that the country must take now. According to him, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukraine will be forced to appeal to younger age groups.
“I think it is necessary to lower the mobilization age, because the longer the war lasts, the faster we will come to this. And by making this decision now, we can already significantly expand the staff, professionalism, quality, and efficiency of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the military says.
Motivation is important, not age
The officer notes that there is an unfair attitude toward older military personnel, who are often perceived as less effective because of their age. Yevhen “Tykhyi” emphasizes that during the war, the key is not so much physical ability as motivation.
“I met many young soldiers who were 25 years old or younger. They didn’t just come to the front for money – they really wanted to win. They were constantly improving their efficiency, buying equipment, raising additional funds, and actively developing as professionals,” he says.
Another important aspect that the officer draws attention to is the readiness of young people to change.
“Young people do not have the same ‘hardened’ ideas about war as older generations who served in the army in the 80s or 90s. They are more open to new approaches and technologies, which is important in today’s warfare,” explains Tykhyi.
Changes in legislation and curricula are needed
Tykhyi is convinced that Ukraine should prepare to lower the mobilization age and develop systems that will allow young people interested in serving to adapt to the realities of war as effectively as possible. At the same time, it is important to provide adequate material and social support to ensure that recruits do not lose motivation.
“Paying 20 thousand hryvnias a month can demotivate recruits more than combat. We need to increase the level of motivation and provide normal conditions for the military,” he emphasizes.
Therefore, although lowering the mobilization age may be an important step for the army, the main focus should be on investing in technologies that will ensure the sustainability and superiority of Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
