Energy Challenges: Can the Left Bank of Ukraine Plunge into Darkness?
26 December 2024 11:45
Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have created serious problems for the country’s energy supply. Journalists warn that Ukraine’s Left Bank is at risk of being plunged into darkness due to the destruction of local power generation facilities. Damage to power transmission systems could lead to blackouts in key cities, including Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, expert on international energy relations and security, explained the current state of Ukraine’s energy system and the difficulties with the even distribution of electricity across the country in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“In order to understand the situation, we need to look at how the generation is located in Ukraine as a whole. I mean power plants. One way or another, in the current situation, after the start of the full-scale invasion, the main generation – nuclear – is located on the Right Bank. These are 9 nuclear power units at three nuclear power plants. And plus thermal generation,” explained Honchar.
However, due to the war, Ukraine has suffered significant losses in its energy infrastructure.
“During the fighting in the East, we lost part of the thermal generation that was in Donbas. Also, due to systemic attacks on the energy infrastructure, the thermal generation, which was largely lost, was lost on the Left Bank,” Honchar said.
However, he noted that it is not a question of a complete lack of generation on the Left Bank:
“But we are not talking about the fact that there is no generation left there at all. It is there, but there is a deficit.”
The country’s unified energy system
The country’s unified energy system has traditionally allowed energy to be transferred between regions, balancing the prosperity of the Right Bank and the needs of the Left Bank.
“Traditionally, it was arranged in such a way that part of the energy flow from the Right Bank also went to the Left Bank within the unified energy system of Ukraine. This continues to this day. That’s what the unified energy system is for,” explains Honchar.
Nevertheless, problems have arisen, in particular with the ability to transfer energy between regions.
“But problems arise where there is what is called an intersection problem. Crossing means how much we can supply from the Right Bank to the Left Bank. In other circumstances, well, it was a problem-free issue, so to speak. In the current circumstances, there are some problems related to the fact that the crossing that has traditionally taken place for all these decades is not enough to supply more energy to the Left Bank,” Honchar clarifies.
Regional influence and disinformation
The strain on the energy system has resulted in an uneven impact, as the Left Bank experiences greater shortages and longer blackouts.
“Therefore, the situation will be different. And, of course, under the circumstances that are developing there now, there may be greater deficits and longer outages on the Left Bank,” Honchar said.
However, Honchar warns against narratives that try to divide Ukrainians.
“But this does not mean that, so to speak, the Left Bank will remain in the dark, and the Right Bank will be here to make a show of itself. It’s just that such information injections are being launched now, aimed at creating another rift, that some are fighting, others are getting fat,” he emphasized.
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The situation in the Ukrainian energy sector
on March 22, 2024, Russia resumed its attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, carrying out one of the most massive shelling operations in the entire period of the full-scale war. In particular, DniproHES and other Ukrainian energy facilities were hit. Since then, Russia has been regularly shelling Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
For example, the Russians destroyed the Trypillia and Zmiiv thermal power plants, causing Centrenergo to lose 100% of its generation. Also, 5 of DTEK’s 6 thermal power plants were severely damaged.
After that, power outages began again in Ukraine, Ukrenergo introduced blackout schedules, and the government raised electricity tariffs by 60% at once.
At the same time, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to build two new units at the Khmelnytsky N PP and has already received approval from the relevant parliamentary committee. The Razumkov Center has criticized these plans, but some experts believe that only traitors or scoundrels are against the construction of nuclear power plants today.
Russia launched another massive attack on the Ukrainian energy sector on August 26. This time, they targeted distribution and power generation systems, and also hit the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant.
Russia carried out the most massive shelling of Ukraine on November 17, 2024, firing 127 cruise, ballistic, and supersonic missiles and 109 attack drones. DTEK reported serious damage to its thermal power plants.
Some experts believe that the blackouts could last until spring. And the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine voiced the worst-case scenario, which envisages blackouts of up to 20 hours a day.
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