The price of a loan: what Ukraine has to do to get $8 billion from the IMF
28 November 18:57
The International Monetary Fund agrees to support Ukraine again with billions in loans, but, as always, on the condition that a large number of requirements are met. Kommersant found out how reasonable they are and how effective they can be.
“A sign of trust,” is how one of the interlocutors of the publication characterized the fact that the country continues to cooperate with the IMF. This “sign of trust” has its own price for Ukraine, which can be calculated in different ways.
On the one hand, this includes the more than $8 billion that Ukraine is to receive under the new program, and the billions that have not yet been fixed but are much needed, which may come from international financial organizations, including the EBRD, the World Bank, and foreign countries that are guided by the fact that a particular country cooperates with the Fund and its actual guarantee that this country will not go bankrupt.
For Ukraine, on the other hand, the price of such cooperation can be measured by fulfilling a fairly large number of specific requirements. Most of them can be grouped under the heading of strengthening the fight against tax evasion and broadening the tax base, which should help Ukraine to fill its budget on its own.
Tax reserves
In short, the IMF focuses most of its attention on three items. First, it is about revising the privilege for duty-free import of parcels from abroad – currently, parcels with a value of less than €150 are exempt from VAT and customs duties. Mostly, we are talking about parcels from Chinese marketplaces such as Temu and AliExpress.
To understand the scale of the situation. According to the NBU, in January-September 2025, Ukrainians imported $4.5 billion worth of parcels, which exceeded the same figure for the entire year 2024. The National Bank of Ukraine provided such estimates in response to the EP’s request. Most of these parcels were received without paying taxes. It is logical that the NBU expressed its support for the abolition of the duty-free import of parcels. And such support comes not only from the National Bank.
Ilya Neskhodovskyi, economist, head of the analytical direction of the Network for the Protection of National Interests “ANTS”, continues :
“During the war, it is absolutely ridiculous to subsidize a Chinese manufacturer. And the IMF says that it is necessary to tax parcels. They mostly, by 90%, come from China. Moreover, they don’t actually bring in any tax revenues to the state budget because there is a tax exemption. Secondly, this is one of the smuggling schemes, when a person supposedly receives the goods, but in fact there is a certain business that receives the goods. And at the same time, the corresponding cost is reduced. There is also an absolutely unhealthy competition within the country, when goods from a Chinese manufacturer simply arrive without paying taxes, while a Ukrainian manufacturer has to pay the full amount of taxes. Therefore, this is the right and necessary initiative. I also approve of the introduction of taxation through digital platforms. This also applies to those who rent apartments through Booking, and those who provide taxi services, etc. That is, it is normal, despite the fact that there is preferential taxation there,” the expert notes.
In fact, this is the second important position among the IMF’s requirements. It involves taxing the income of those who use digital platforms such as Bolt, Uklon, Glovo, Booking, OnlyFans, or OLX. Currently, people who earn money through these digital platforms have to declare their income and pay taxes on it. But they often “forget” to do so. Therefore, the tax authorities should be given access to information about these incomes so that they can control and tax everything.
The third requirement concerns the abolition of privileges for registering as a value added tax payer. It is planned to introduce VAT for individual entrepreneurs who declare more than UAH 1 million in annual income. This is not so clear-cut, as it is assumed that such changes could harm small entrepreneurs operating under the simplified taxation system.
Economist Ilya Neskhodovsky, for example, is not sure that the threshold for registering as a value-added taxpayer will be lowered. He also fears that such adjustments will lead to the closure of businesses or their fragmentation.
The Alliance of Regional Associations of Small Businesses has carefully read the IMF’s press releases and believes that the Fund’s demand relates primarily to the efficiency and transparency of the VAT system, not to the revision of the simplified taxation system.
“Individual entrepreneurs on the simplified taxation system should not feel any changes, as they are not covered by these rules. The IMF’s recommendations include a review of the general VAT benefits, including special regimes, deferrals, exemptions and exemptions that allow certain categories of businesses to avoid registering as VAT payers even if they operate under the general system. This is about expanding the VAT base, not about increasing fiscal pressure on small businesses. But our government has a different translation. The government is starting to scare individual entrepreneurs on the simplified taxation system, who have nothing to do with VAT at all. Once again, the pressure is on the smallest, while the real loopholes remain untouched,” the Alliance of Regional Small Business Associations emphasizes.
There are still reserves
As you know, the uncovered funding gap in the budget for 2026 is estimated at $18-19 billion. In such circumstances, it is logical to oppose all kinds of “scheming”. Especially since there is a lot to block. Ilya Neskhodovskyi, head of the analytical department of the Network for the Protection of National Interests, said that he and his colleagues had met with an IMF representative and pointed out that there are a large number of tax avoidance schemes in Ukraine.
“This is the issue of excise taxes, in particular, on tobacco, where more than a third of the products are directly in the shadow. This is the issue of alcohol, where a significant portion of taxes is also lost. The third point is the issue of gasoline trade, and there are about 10 billion budget losses. They also focused on the schemes that currently exist in the gambling business. And, accordingly, the IMF directly recommends that the government strengthen the fight against various schemes,” the expert notes.
The Alliance of Regional Small Business Associations also points to existing budget reserves.
“In the draft budget for 2026, the government includes expenditures that can be easily reduced: we are talking about unclear projects, roads, increased spending on officials, a telethon, communications, and unnecessary programs. This is 80% of what the IMF gives Ukraine per year. The IMF asks us to save money, but the government continues to spend,” the entrepreneurs emphasize.
In fact, formally, changes to the draft budget are still possible. The parliament has not yet voted on the document in the second reading and in general. Meanwhile, the adoption of the budget for 2026 is called one of the conditions for approving an IMF loan. Also, the IMF will likely want to see some steps towards the stated benchmarks before finally giving the go-ahead for the deal.
For example, the adoption of a law by the parliament that will facilitate the taxation of income of those who use digital platforms. Moreover, the relevant draft law has already been developed. But that’s not all.
There is an opinion that the IMF will want to wait for confirmation that everything will be fine with Ukraine’s external financing next year. And a guarantee for this could be, for example, the EU’s decision to grant Ukraine a so-called reparations loan.
Author: Sergiy Vasilevich
