Business sentiment has improved — National Bank survey
16 April 12:45
In Ukraine, the Business Expectations Index (BEI) rose to 105.8% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 102.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This was reported by the National Bank of Ukraine based on the results of a survey of company executives in the first quarter of 2026, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“In the first quarter of 2026, businesses expected a revival of business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents forecast growth in the volume of goods and services produced and strengthened their positive assessments regarding the development of their own enterprises. Inflation expectations remained unchanged, while exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly,” the statement said.
It is noted that survey participants improved their assessments of all components of the business expectations index, most notably regarding investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory, as well as construction work, and regarding the total volume of sales of their own products. Enterprises in 10 surveyed regions and the vast majority of economic sectors expected a revival in business activity. For the second consecutive quarter, the cautious assessments of business leaders regarding the future total number of employees continued to ease.
“Military operations and their consequences remain the dominant factor limiting enterprises’ ability to increase production volumes. The shortage of skilled workers continues to have a significant impact. More than any other factor, an increase in the impact of excessively high energy prices was expected,” the report states.
It is noted that businesses have improved their assessments of the volume of goods and services production in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses is 0.6% (in the fourth quarter, it was -1.8%). Respondents from eight regions expected an increase in production volume.
The expected annual inflation rate for the next 12 months was 11.1%, unchanged from the previous survey.
Military operations remain the most significant inflationary factor for 82.7% of respondents.
“Respondents also expected significant impacts from the factors ‘exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign currencies’ and ‘production costs.’ In contrast, the dynamics of the money supply in the economy, according to respondents, will have the least impact on consumer price growth.”
In the first quarter of this year, businesses softened their cautious assessments of the current financial and economic condition of their own enterprises: the balance of responses was “minus” 4.7% compared to “minus” 5.8% in the fourth quarter.
Respondents improved their positive assessments regarding changes in the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises over the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 2.0% (0.8% in the fourth quarter).
“The most optimistic expectations were demonstrated by enterprises in the transportation and communications sectors, as well as other industries, while representatives of the construction and trade sectors expected the future financial and economic condition of their own enterprises to remain at the current level.”
Survey participants were more confident in expecting an increase in product sales volumes over the next 12 months, particularly in the foreign market: balance of responses—14.5% and 15.8% (in Q4—9.6% and 11.7%, respectively).
Enterprises attracting foreign investment maintained their expectations regarding growth in foreign investment volumes over the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 11.6% (15.5% in the fourth quarter).
Respondents continued to moderate their cautious assessments regarding the number of employees at their enterprises over the next 12 months: the balance of responses was “minus” 1.8% compared to “minus” 3.8% in the fourth quarter.
Respondents raised their assessments of the need for borrowed funds in the near term: the balance of responses stood at 34.7% compared to 31.7% in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the share of respondents planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged: 35.6% compared to 35.7% in the fourth quarter.
Respondents slightly lowered their assessments of the strictness of conditions for accessing bank loans: the balance of responses was 11.4% (11.6% in the previous survey).
The share of companies planning to raise funds abroad stood at 6.6% compared to 7.1% in the fourth quarter.
The quarterly survey was conducted from January 29 to February 27, 2026. A total of 664 enterprises from 21 regions of the country participated in the survey (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions).
As stated in the NBU’s announcement, the survey results reflect only the opinions of the respondents—business leaders—and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Business Expectations Index is an aggregate indicator of the expected development of enterprises over the next 12 months. It is calculated based on the results of business surveys as the arithmetic mean of the balances of responses regarding the financial and economic condition of enterprises, total sales of own-produced goods, investment expenditures on construction work, machinery, equipment, and inventory, and the number of employees. An index value above 100 indicates a predominance of positive economic sentiment in society, while a value below 100 indicates negative economic sentiment.
