The collapse of the Russian economy is inevitable as early as 2026, says Novak
27 April 18:39
Russia’s economy is entering the final stage of decline, and its collapse could occur as early as 2026. Economist Andrei Novak made this statement in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the expert, a number of economic indicators point to a worsening situation, which can no longer be concealed even by official Russian statistics.
“For the first time, this year Russia admitted that its GDP has finally gone into negative territory. In other words, they can no longer even hide this fact, as they did before,” says Novak.
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Separately, Novak draws attention to the state of public finances and reserves.
“Already in the first quarter of 2026, Russia’s federal budget deficit amounted to 4.5 trillion rubles, exceeding their annual forecast. And the trend is only toward an increase in this deficit.
“Moreover, Russia is selling its own gold. They have been forced to resort to selling precious metals—their last reserves of gold and foreign exchange,” the economist adds.
The situation is no better in key sectors of the economy, Novak continued.
“60% of Russian companies operating in the most profitable sector, the oil and gas industry, have become unprofitable. This is a negative development; it is a path to bankruptcy,” he adds.
Employees are already feeling the strain, the economist adds.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich, please help—we haven’t been paid for six months, and for some, it’s already been a year. Workers are already protesting—and who are they? Chinese workers employed at Russian enterprises,” he notes.
Against this backdrop, according to Novak, the situation is also deteriorating in Russia’s regions, where there are insufficient funds even to address the aftermath of emergencies. As an example, he cited the flood that occurred a few weeks ago in Dagestan.
The economist concludes: the combination of these factors points to a systemic crisis that could soon lead not only to economic collapse but also to the collapse of the Russian state
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