Will Belarusian troops launch an offensive in the coming weeks? An expert on the Belarusian army’s activities
29 April 09:27
OPINION
Recently, the topic of a possible attack on Ukraine by Belarus has resurfaced in the media. This was sparked by statements from Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushko, who claims that Alexander Lukashenko has never been as prepared for war as he is now. According to the opposition figure, preparations extend not only to the Armed Forces but also to the legal framework: Belarus’s new military doctrine now permits preemptive strikes against neighboring states in the event of a “threat.”
At the same time, Ukrainian military experts and analysts are calling for a sober assessment of the situation, distinguishing between the political rhetoric of the self-proclaimed president and Minsk’s actual military capabilities. Is Belarus capable of opening a new front against Ukraine on its own? Which threats remain the most real—an offensive or provocations?
Is Lukashenko ready for war?
Lukashenko’s statements about his readiness to go “to the very end” with Russia should not be taken at face value. The Belarusian dictator fully understands the catastrophic consequences of direct entry into the war. This was noted in a comment
“Lukashenko can say whatever he wants… But in reality, he is trying to walk a fine line because he fully understands the consequences of an attack on Ukraine from Belarus,” the analyst notes.
The expert recalled that Minsk has already been repeatedly reminded of the norms of international law. According to a UN General Assembly resolution, providing one’s territory for the aggression of another state (which Belarus has already done) constitutes an act of aggression. This gives Ukraine the full right to self-defense.
Hetman emphasized that in the event of an attack, Ukraine would have the legal right to strike all military and military-industrial facilities on Belarusian territory, and any individual—from a squad commander to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Belarus—would become a legitimate military target.
Is Ukraine prepared for an attack from Belarus?
Unlike at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine now has significantly more capabilities for delivering long-range strikes. According to Hetman, the Belarusian air defense system is unlikely to be able to cope with a massive Ukrainian counterattack.
“I don’t think we’ll send troops into Belarusian territory. Our missile strikes alone will suffice,” says Hetman.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s northern border has been transformed into an impregnable fortress over the past two years. The region’s geography (narrow passages between rivers and swamps) already makes it difficult for military vehicles to advance, and Ukrainian engineers have further reinforced these natural obstacles.
- All potential routes of advance are under full fire control by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
- An extensive network of company-level strongpoints has been established.
- The territory, including forest belts, has been heavily mined.
According to the Center for Countering Disinformation and assessments by military analysts, the likelihood of a full-scale offensive from Belarus is currently assessed as “extremely low.” First, there is no sign of the necessary concentration of troops or preparations for active offensive operations. Second, the Belarusian army is too small to pose a serious threat on its own without massive support from the Russian Armed Forces, which are currently engaged in other areas. However, the likelihood of provocations along the border—such as shelling and actions by sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs)—remains high. According to Oleksiy Hetman, this is the Kremlin’s primary objective in the Belarusian theater.
Putin’s goal is not to seize new territories in the north, but to create constant tension in order to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maintain significant forces there and prevent the redeployment of reserves to critical sections of the front (in particular, to the Donetsk region).
The Issue of Air Defense and the “Simplicity” of Modern Warfare
When asked whether Putin is willing to share the latest air defense systems with Lukashenko to protect against Ukrainian drones and missiles, Oleksiy Hetman replied that modern warfare dictates new rules.
The expert noted that high technology and artificial intelligence often prove less effective against the massive use of simple and cheap means, such as kamikaze drones.
“To help Lukashenko, Putin doesn’t need to provide some high-tech gadgets, but simply a large number of air defense systems,” Getman concluded.
Despite Minsk’s threatening rhetoric and preparations for provocations, there are currently no signs of preparations for an actual invasion from the north.
The Ukrainian command assures that the situation at the border is fully under control, and the forces and assets stationed there (Border Guard, Armed Forces of Ukraine, National Guard) are more than sufficient to repel any scenario.
The Kremlin has not yet succeeded in withdrawing the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s strategic reserves from Donetsk Oblast relying solely on the Belarusian factor.
