Labor shortages are crippling production in Russia: what we know
19 May 18:52
Russia is facing a severe labor shortage, which could hamper the country’s economic development for many years to come. This is driven by demographic shifts and the ongoing war against Ukraine, which are reducing the size of the working-age population.
Bloomberg reports on this, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to Bloomberg, Russia currently needs an additional 1.5 million workers to restore balance in the labor market. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has exacerbated the shortage: according to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 deaths as of January 2026. Demographic factors, such as an aging population and low birth rates, are exacerbating the situation.
Official forecasts
The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs forecasts a shortage of 3 million workers by 2030. Elvira Nabiullina, Chair of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, noted that modern Russia has never faced such an acute labor shortage. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, highlights the low unemployment rate of 2.2%, but this figure underscores the limited potential for labor market expansion.
“Russia’s working-age population was already shrinking before the war: between 2015 and 2022, it decreased by 4.9 million people. The share of Russians of working age has been declining since 2010 and stands at about 74 million people. This is the result of a ripple effect from the 1990s, when the birth rate plummeted,” the publication writes.
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The Impact of War and Immigration
According to estimates by demographer Igor Yefremov, emigration from Russia since 2022 has reduced the labor force by 300,000–400,000 people, partially offset by an influx of 100,000–200,000 workers from the occupied territories of Ukraine. The number of labor migrants has also decreased by approximately 1 million due to stricter immigration policies.
The coming decade may bring some improvement, as a new generation—born as a result of the 2000s’ policies aimed at increasing the birth rate—enters the labor market. However, the overall trend of population aging will persist, as the birth rate has once again fallen to levels seen in the late 1990s.
It should be noted that Renat Suleimanov, a State Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) faction, has spoken out in favor of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible. His arguments are based on economic considerations, specifically that Russia’s economy “cannot withstand a prolonged continuation of the SMO” (Special Military Operation—the official Russian term for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine)
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