When Ukraine Might Be Able to Produce Its First Missiles for the Patriot System: Experts Explain
8 July 21:45
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Ukraine would be granted the right to manufacture Patriot air defense missile systems. In comments to RBC-Ukraine, experts discussed the prospects for localizing the production of critical air defense components, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Aviation expert Konstantin Kryvolap emphasized that this most likely refers to the production of missiles for the Patriot systems, since there are no issues with the launchers—we already have them, and they are manufactured by the Poles.
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According to him, if we’re being optimistic, it will take at least a year to set up a production site, build something, “hide” something, and start bringing in equipment.
“Let’s say, in the best-case scenario, a year. And it will take another two years to produce a single missile. Because, based on the PAC-3 missile production technology, manufacturing takes 23 to 25 months. So, that’s two years. Therefore, in the best-case scenario, we’ll receive all of this in 2029,” Kryvolap emphasized.
He also added that as early as 2027, Ukraine should receive the contracted PAC-3 missiles from the United States.
Aviation expert and director of development at a defense enterprise, Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi, emphasized that it is not yet entirely clear how Ukraine will be granted a production license or whether any manufacturing support will be provided.
“The Patriot missile production system involves a large number of countries. There is a factory in Japan, followed by final assembly in Germany, and as for the PAC-3, they are manufactured by Lockheed Martin in Arkansas. Accordingly, it’s important to understand that some of the guidance systems are manufactured by other companies; it’s not the case that everything is produced at a single plant,” the expert emphasized.
Khrapchynskyi also noted that final assembly requires entirely different production lines. In his view, this does not involve launchers and certainly not radar systems, but likely only the missiles themselves.
“The positive development is that Ukraine will most likely be allowed to manufacture these systems, but exactly which part of the production process—whether it’s final assembly—has not yet been disclosed,” he added.
Where are Patriot missiles manufactured today?
The production of missiles for the Patriot air defense system is an example of large-scale international cooperation, in which no single company manufactures the system on its own.
Specifically, production of the most advanced PAC-3 variant is handled by the American company Lockheed Martin in Arkansas, while final assembly of the PAC-2 (GEM-T) variant takes place in Germany, and Japan operates its own licensed production lines.
At the same time, critically important components, such as precision guidance systems and onboard electronics, are supplied by an extensive network of other specialized subcontractors around the world.
What the Ministry of Defense Is Saying
For his part, Defense Minister Advisor Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov expressed confidence on Telegram that Ukraine will be able to independently produce missiles for the “Patriot” system.
“I disassembled PAC missiles from the ‘Patriot’ system after they were fired. I saw what they’re made of and how they’re assembled, and I can say with confidence that we’ll be able to set up their production under a U.S. license,” Beskrestnov noted.
According to him, this is great news, but the most important thing is for the production of key air defense components to begin as soon as possible.
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