“The next wave will be different”: An expert reveals what kind of large-scale attacks Russia is preparing for
30 October 16:45
FORECAST
The era of conventional, slow-moving drones is becoming a thing of the past. The latest strikes on Dnipro, Chernihiv, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia have demonstrated Russia’s shift to a new tactic—the mass launch of jet-powered makeshift missiles. The enemy is deliberately terrorizing civilian targets using modernized high-speed drones such as the “Geran-5.” What threats does this technological evolution in the skies pose, how is it linked to the aggressor’s diplomatic maneuvers, and why Ukraine urgently needs to rethink its approach to frontline air defense—read about it in this "Komersant Ukrainian" article.
The tragedies in Dnipro, where a jet-powered drone struck the area near the train station and a dormitory, and the attack on Chernihiv, where 15-year-old girls were killed, are not random shelling incidents. This opinion was expressed by military expert, reserve colonel, and flight instructor Roman Svitan. According to the expert, the enemy is using systems controlled in real time via a communications network, which indicates a deliberate campaign of terror against the civilian population.
“This is a terrorist attack in its purest form. The operator knew exactly where he was directing that drone…,” notes Roman Svitan.
In the expert’s view, this sharp escalation is directly linked to the intensification of the negotiation track, in which various international mediators are now participating.
“Anyone in the world should step in and resolve the issue of Ukraine directly with the parties involved,” emphasizes the reserve colonel.
“Geran-5” and makeshift missiles: a new technical reality in the sky
Modernized jet-powered UAVs, also known as “Geran-5,” pose a particular threat. According to experts, these aircraft have effectively evolved into aircraft-type ersatz missiles capable of reaching high speeds.
“The Geran-5, a jet-powered drone—it’s a rocket-like, aircraft-type drone… This is not the Geran we’re used to… Ground speed at high altitudes can reach up to 1,000 kilometers per hour due to differences in air pressure and jet streams,” said Roman Svitan.
The speaker predicts that the next wave of massive attacks will involve the widespread use of such makeshift missiles. To manufacture them, the enemy uses both imported components (particularly from China) and its own turbojet engines (for example, the MD-120, which was originally developed for “Danina-M”-type aerial targets).
How can Ukraine shoot down these makeshift missiles?
Commenting on the effectiveness of air defense, Roman Svitan highlights a fundamental strategic mistake from previous periods—the diversion of funding and resources toward the development of lightweight interceptor drones instead of creating a dense frontline air defense system based on short-range surface-to-air missile systems.
“We don’t need any interceptor drones; they don’t solve the problem. We need to immediately focus on short-range air defense missile systems, on all-aspect, all-weather short-range missiles that will resolve issues related to aerial targets. If all drones are intercepted at the front lines—regardless of who’s controlling them—the Russians will fall completely behind on this front,” explains the flight instructor.
According to him, a reliable solution could be mobile platforms such as the Finnish Sisu armored personnel carriers with integrated French “Crotale” systems or similar Western systems featuring radio-command guidance and high interception speeds.
What’s happening on the front lines?
Assessing the operational situation on the front lines, the expert draws attention to threats in the Kherson sector, where the enemy is attempting to establish fortified positions and amass resources. However, a full-scale crossing of the Dnipro River, given the water obstacles, remains an extremely difficult task for the occupiers. According to Svitan, such actions are aimed at stretching Ukrainian reserves along the flanks.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are systematically destroying the infrastructure used to launch enemy drones. In particular, successful strikes on targets in the Bryansk region (Navli district) and damage to drone launch sites near Donetsk are significantly complicating the enemy’s logistics.
“This is routine, systematic, and planned work—destroying Russian drone launch sites so that they at least don’t reach us… One option is precisely to neutralize launch pads, storage facilities, transit warehouses, and medium-scale assembly plants for these drones closer to the front line,” concludes Roman Svitan.
The expert concludes that the key to the security of Ukrainian cities remains the technological strengthening of short-range frontline air defense and the systematic destruction of the enemy’s military-industrial logistics on its own territory.
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