Global grain importers are looking for alternatives to supplies from Ukraine
21 August 10:56
The world’s largest wheat buyers are preparing for a reduction in supplies and are forced to seek alternative sources of grain due to Russian shelling of infrastructure in the Black Sea region. This was reported by Reuters, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“Prices for wheat futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have risen by more than 17% since the beginning of July. Due to the attacks, shipping companies have postponed or canceled the loading of dozens of ships at the height of the season,” the report states.
Price Gap and Alternative Markets
Between July and September, Asian millers ordered about 2–2.5 million metric tons of Black Sea wheat, covering 30–50% of their demand.
According to the publication,fearing delays, buyers are considering purchases from Australia, the U.S., and Argentina.
Entering new markets will cost buyers significantly more:
- Black Sea wheat costs $260–280 per metric ton;
- U.S. wheat is priced starting at $305 per metric ton;
- Australian Premium White costs $315–320 per metric ton, including delivery to Asia.
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Dependence of Key Buyers
The market situation is partially mitigated by better harvests in North Africa and the Middle East.
“In particular, the Egyptian government has purchased record volumes of domestically produced grain, and rainfall has improved the outlook in Morocco and Tunisia,” the report states.
At the same time, a number of countries remain critically dependent on Black Sea grain:
- In the first half of the year, Egypt received over 82% of its imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia;
- Indonesia contracted for about 600,000 metric tons of grain from the region for July–September and is forced to seek alternatives due to a lack of significant surpluses;
- Algeria, Bangladesh, Jordan, Thailand, and Vietnam also remain dependent on supplies from the Black Sea.
Losses Due to Port Shutdowns
According to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the forced suspension of seaport operations in the second half of the year will cost Ukraine more than $2 billion in lost export revenue.
As a reminder, the government and Ukrzaliznytsia have begun searching for new routes for grain exports due to the closure of Black Sea ports.
The carrier is working to expand alternative routes to compensate for the restrictions on maritime transport caused by Russian attacks.
Earlier, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky stated that Ukraine has a well-developed network of alternative export routes and sufficient grain storage capacity.
Vysotsky also noted that even under the most favorable conditions, rail, road, and Danube routes would be able to handle only up to 45–50% of Ukraine’s annual agricultural exports.
At the same time, Ukraine has lowered its grain export forecast for the 2026–2027 season by 12% compared to previous estimates—to 38–40 million metric tons.
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