The supply of low-cost oil on the global market will increase in September–October
14 August 16:14
In their August report, USDA experts once again raised their forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.5 million metric tons to a record 99.08 million metric tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY and by 13 million metric tons compared to the 2024/25 MY, but prices responded to this increase with a rise. This was reported by [Komersant], citing GrainTrade.
Over two days, November rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 1.6% to 540.5 €/metric ton or $623/metric ton (reaching last month’s level), while November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 2.9% to 804 CAD/metric ton or $578/metric ton (up 3.7% for the month), despite an increase in Canada’s harvest forecast by 0.5 million metric tons to 22.5 million metric tons.
The speculative rise is linked to a reduction in rapeseed shipments from Ukraine via Black Sea ports and the suspension of operations at Russian Black Sea ports following shelling, but fundamental factors indicate a sufficiently high supply of oilseeds, particularly rapeseed, this season; therefore, as supply increases, prices will fall sharply.
On the Matif exchange, speculative funds reduced their net long position by 4,336 contracts last week but maintained a net long position of 73,000 contracts in anticipation of rising prices.
The European rapeseed market remains under pressure from delivery delays from both Ukraine and local farmers due to low water levels in the Rhine and Danube rivers, which are increasing transportation costs and keeping prices high in the physical market.
Demand prices for rapeseed delivered to EU processing plants in August–September are currently 20–25 €/t lower than November futures on Matif, at 510–520 €/t, but the number of buyers with available storage capacity is very limited.
In Ukraine, processors are keeping their bid prices for rapeseed at 19,500–21,500 UAH/metric ton (44% oil content) delivered to mills, as they have already purchased the volumes needed for the next 2–3 months, while exporters have raised prices at domestic elevators—from which shipments are loaded onto western terminals—to 21,000–21,500 UAH/metric ton EXW-elevators amid rising exchange quotations.
Export bid prices for rapeseed at Danube and Black Sea ports are quoted at $470–490/metric ton or 21,000–22,000 UAH/metric ton, and with delivery to terminals on the western border—at $450–480/metric ton or 21,000–22,000 UAH/metric ton.
The decline in domestic prices for new-crop rapeseed and sunflower seeds in Ukraine and Russia will sharply increase the supply of cheap oil on the global market in September–October, so importers, against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in the supply of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oil, will hold back on purchases in anticipation of lower prices.
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