The global oil market has reacted to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: when can Ukrainians expect cheaper fuel?
17 April 19:26
ANALYSIS FROM 
Today, global energy markets and the media reacted immediately to the first reports of the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Crude oil prices fell by about 10% after Iran announced that the waterway was “fully open” to all commercial vessels until the ceasefire agreement with the United States expires. As is well known, the Strait of Hormuz is a “lifeline” through which about 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes. "Komersant Ukrainian" examined how quickly the situation will affect the fuel market and when Ukrainians can expect lower prices at gas stations.
Against the backdrop of an immediate drop in oil prices, experts are nevertheless urging people not to rush into optimism and to wait for an immediate drop in prices at gas stations. According to economist Oleg Pendzin, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have flared up amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. The blockade has become a tool of pressure by Iran in response to tightening international sanctions and the military presence of Western allies in the Persian Gulf.
Since the strait is extremely narrow (at its narrowest point, the navigable channel is only a few kilometers wide), any threat of mining or attacks on tankers by the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) effectively paralyzes the export of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. This instantly creates a shortage in the global market, driving prices up.
For these reasons, the economist calls the global energy market’s reaction to the first reports of falling oil prices premature and emotional.
“Despite the fact that stock market charts have turned green (or red—depending on whether you’re betting on cheap oil), Oleg Pendzin warns against jumping to conclusions. He emphasizes that the market is currently driven more by news than by actual fuel volumes.
“Don’t rush to make predictions. You have to understand that oil markets are extremely emotional. And just as they fell quickly, they will rise just as fast. We’ve seen this happen more than once,” the economist notes.
According to him, a stable trend requires facts, not just statements about de-escalation:
“Only after it is officially confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz has been unblocked and the tankers have departed can we speak of a more established pattern. For now, it’s nothing more than emotions.”
The economist also points out the technological lag—time must pass between the drop in the price of “black gold” and the change in prices at gas stations.
“There is a 20-day lag between the price of oil and the price of petroleum products made from oil,” emphasizes Oleg Pendzin.
When can we expect cheaper fuel in Ukraine?
For Ukrainian drivers, the situation looks even more complicated. Since Ukraine is completely dependent on fuel imports, the route of cheap fuel to our borders is longer than to European ports. Energy expert Mykhailo Honchar is also skeptical about a rapid improvement in the situation at domestic gas stations.
“Will we feel that fuel prices are going down? No, we won’t. It won’t happen next week. That’s just not how it works,” Gonchar says bluntly.
He explains that the logistics chain for fuel supply to Ukraine takes significantly longer than consumers would like:
“If the price of oil has dropped now, it won’t happen overnight before that oil at the lower price reaches, for example, European refineries, is processed into diesel or gasoline, and delivered to Ukraine. That takes about a month.”
Therefore, according to Gonchar, any price fluctuations in the coming days will be largely symbolic:
“We shouldn’t expect fuel to be a few hryvnias cheaper at our gas stations tomorrow. Maybe some jokers will lower prices by 20 kopecks, but that’s about it.”
At the same time, both experts do not rule out the idea that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic victory for the global economy, which is cooling down the energy market.
However, a real drop in gasoline and diesel prices in Ukraine can be discussed no sooner than in 3–4 weeks, and only if the situation in the Persian Gulf remains stable. For now, according to experts, the market is experiencing an “emotional advance.”
