Ukraine has lowered its grain export forecast due to the blockade of its ports
10 August 16:41
Ukraine has lowered its grain export forecast for the July-June 2026/27 season by 12% compared to the previous forecast.
This was announced by Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky in comments to Reuters, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“We are currently targeting 38–40 million metric tons,” he said in the first official export forecast since the escalation of Russian attacks in late July.
The ministry had forecast exports of 43 million metric tons for this season before the attacks on ports intensified.
The ministry’s forecast generally aligns with estimates from analysts at the consulting firm APK-Inform, who on Monday lowered their export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million metric tons due to disruptions in exports.
This estimate included 13.5 million metric tons of wheat, 24 million metric tons of corn, and 1.5 million metric tons of barley.
The downward revision of the grain export forecast underscores the damage that Russian attacks are inflicting on Ukrainian exports, more than 90% of which were shipped through seaports.
The Ministry of Agriculture reported on Monday that disruptions in grain storage could lead to a shortage of 11 million metric tons.
Earlier, Vysotsky stated that losses to the agricultural sector from the port blockade could reach $3 billion.
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Russian attacks have halted operations at Black Sea ports
As a reminder: On July 23, the entry of ships into Ukraine’s Black Sea ports was suspended due to the threat of Russian attacks. This was preceded by weeks of airstrikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports.
The Russians attacked a bridge in Mayaky, Odesa Oblast, to disrupt the export of Ukrainian grain and other goods via an alternative land corridor that Ukraine has been using since maritime exports were halted.
Ukraine’s seaports are effectively blocked for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Prior to this, approximately 90% of Ukrainian exports passed through maritime routes. The decline in the number of ship calls began after a sharp intensification of Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the second half of July.
Problems with maritime exports have already impacted Ukraine’s foreign trade. According to preliminary data from the State Customs Service, exports of goods fell to $3.1 billion in July from $3.5 billion in June. The largest decline was in agricultural exports. In the first six days of August, Ukraine shipped 312,900 metric tons of agricultural products—60% less than during the same period in July.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food appealed to the European Commission for €220 million in non-repayable financial aid. The funds are proposed to be used to compensate for interest on loans taken out by small and medium-sized agricultural producers who suffered losses due to export restrictions resulting from Russian attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa.
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