Will Gasoline Cost 150 UAH per Liter? An Economist Identifies the Key Condition
10 August 11:53
ANALYSIS 
Could gasoline or diesel fuel cost 150 hryvnias per liter in Ukraine? This question is being asked more and more often amid fluctuations in global oil prices, exchange rates, and the war. At the same time, economic expert Oleg Pendzin stated in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian" that there are currently no preconditions for such a scenario.
According to him, the main factor determining prices at Ukrainian gas stations is the cost of oil on the global market, not the devaluation of the hryvnia.
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What Factors Most Influence Gasoline Prices
The economist emphasizes that it is global oil prices that determine the cost of fuel in Ukraine, since the country imports most of its petroleum products.
“The hryvnia’s devaluation isn’t the primary factor. The primary factor is the price on the global oil market. Today, oil costs about $83 per barrel. There was a period when it cost $105–108. Back then, diesel cost about 96 hryvnias per liter, and gasoline cost 88–89 hryvnias,” explained Oleg Pendzin.
According to him, at current oil prices, fuel cannot cost 100 hryvnias per liter solely due to market factors.
“We need to look at the actual price of oil on the global market. That’s what determines the cost of wholesale shipments in Europe, and those, in turn, determine the price on Ukraine’s domestic market. After all, we import fuel,” the expert noted.
Could Gasoline Cost 150 Hryvnias?
According to Pendzin, a price of 150 hryvnias per liter is possible only under exceptional circumstances.
“The price will reach 150 hryvnias per liter only if the price on the global oil market is close to $200 per barrel,” the economist said.
At the same time, he emphasized that Ukrainian gas station chains do not set arbitrary prices.
“Gas stations set prices that correspond to the price on the global oil market. The global market price determines the cost of wholesale shipments in Europe, and the cost of wholesale shipments in Europe determines the price on Ukraine’s domestic market,” Pendzin explained.
Why it seems like fuel isn’t getting cheaper
The expert was also asked why, with oil prices at $80 and $100 per barrel, Ukrainians sometimes see nearly identical prices at gas stations.
According to Pendzin, this is not entirely accurate.
“When oil was priced at around $100, the price was higher. Then it fell by about 5–6 hryvnias, and later began to rise again,” he noted.
At the same time, oil isn’t the only factor influencing the final price.
What are the two factors that determine the cost of fuel?
Pendzin explains that there are, in fact, two key factors.
“Essentially, there are two indicators here—the price on the global oil market and the hryvnia exchange rate. The hryvnia exchange rate has changed slightly, but not significantly. It’s an equation with two unknowns: plug in the price of oil and the hryvnia exchange rate, and you get the final price of fuel,” the economist said.
According to him, the markup charged by Ukrainian gas station chains remains roughly the same.
“The margin per metric ton at gas stations is roughly the same. They set it at, say, $120–150 per metric ton, and the rest is the market price. Yes, there are brand-specific factors and varying logistics costs, but overall, everything aligns,” the expert noted.
Is $200 per barrel possible?
Although this level of global prices could lead to gasoline costing 150 hryvnias per liter, Pendzin does not consider this scenario realistic.
“I don’t think the price of oil will reach $200. You have to understand that an oil price of $200 would mean a collapse of the global economy,” the economist concluded.
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