More and More: Can Ukraine’s Power Grid Handle the Summer Surge in Electricity Consumption?
29 June 16:02
ANALYSIS
So far this summer, Ukraine has not imposed any restrictions on residential electricity consumption. But it is unlikely that such restrictions can be avoided. Recent reports from the regions confirm this. To find out how prepared the Ukrainian energy sector is for the challenges of summer,
The thermometer readings are creeping up every day, and along with them, Ukrainians’ fears are growing: will the Ukrainian power grid have enough capacity to hold out? This is especially true given that the enemy continues its attacks on energy facilities.
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Vitaliy Zaychenko, Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, assessed the situation last week in an interview with RBC-Ukraine:
“If the period of high temperatures is short-term (2–3 days), it will not fundamentally affect the power grid’s operation. There will be a slight peak on one of those days because consumption is quite inertial… In other words, we have the capacity to cover peak consumption during hot spells, but we must take into account that the power grid is under attack, and these attacks are continuing.”
In fact, power companies have been recording an upward trend in electricity consumption for several days now. For example, on the morning of June 25, it was 3.7% higher than at the same time the previous day. On June 26, it remained at the same level. And on the morning of June 29, electricity consumption had already risen by 7.4% compared to the same time on Friday. According to Ukrenergo, the reason for these changes is the continued hot weather in Ukraine and the increasingly widespread use of air conditioners. However, there has been no mention of any restrictions on electricity supply in recent weeks. This is a telling fact highlighted by Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.
“June is coming to an end, temperatures have already risen quite high, but there have been no blackouts. I’m not taking into account the situation that arose a few days ago in Kyiv, because that was an emergency and some facilities were shut down. But, essentially, the very fact that there were no blackouts and no scheduled outages suggests, at the very least, that we are definitely on track with our maintenance schedule. And this is despite the fact that we currently have two nuclear power units undergoing maintenance. “In other words, this gives us reason to hope that if power outages do occur, they will be limited to extreme cases,” the expert notes.
It is said that this summer, energy officials optimized the schedules for planned maintenance at nuclear power plants. However, a situation is possible where electricity production from nuclear power will be at a minimum, while temperatures and air conditioner usage will be at a maximum. Vitaliy Zaychenko, chairman of the board of Ukrenergo, does not rule out this scenario either:
“We are currently at one of the lowest points in nuclear power generation; the lowest point is expected in a few weeks—in the second half of July and early August. During this same period, summer consumption may peak due to rising air temperatures. This is a typical summer pattern—consumption rises due to air conditioning in homes and offices. On particularly hot days, consumption could increase by 25% compared to current levels.”
According to the official, such consumption can potentially be met, but this will require mobilizing all available resources.
Utilizing Resources
Thermal and hydroelectric power generation—which continues to recover—distributed gas generation, and electricity imports are the three main sources powering Ukraine’s energy system. A professional assessment of available generation capacity by the publication "Komersant Ukrainian" asked Stanislav Ignatiev, chairman of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association.
“The Ukrainian power grid has been operating under wartime conditions for four years now, so exact generation figures change literally every day depending on repairs, weather, and the consequences of Russian attacks. However, as of summer 2026, during peak-load hours, the system is capable of providing approximately 14.7 GW of capacity, and at certain times—even more—thanks to solar generation and imports,” the expert notes.
He points out that nuclear power plants form the backbone of Ukraine’s power generation. In the summer, some of their power units undergo scheduled maintenance ahead of the fall-winter season, and therefore the available capacity of nuclear power plants is estimated at approximately 4.5 GW. In addition to nuclear power, according to Stanislav Ignatyev, electricity is generated by:
- thermal power plants and combined heat and power plants—about 3.5 GW, depending on the condition of the equipment;
- hydroelectric power plants and pumped-storage plants—approximately 2.2 GW;
- solar and wind power plants—from several hundred megawatts to 3–4 GW during daylight hours when weather conditions are favorable;
- gas-fired and distributed generation—several hundred megawatts or more than 1 GW, depending on operating conditions.
Compared to the pre-war period, Stanislav Ignatyev notes, the system has lost a significant portion of its capacity. According to government estimates, more than 9 GW of generation capacity has been damaged or lost as a result of Russian attacks. As a result, the Ukrainian power grid often operates under conditions of shortage.
Overcoming the Power Shortage
A shortage is not a constant figure. According to estimates by the government and industry analysts, in 2026, the deficit will fluctuate between 1 GW under relatively favorable conditions and 4–6 GW under unfavorable scenarios, such as high temperatures or new attacks on the energy sector.
As Stanislav Ignatyev, chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, points out, the deficit in the power grid occurs primarily during the morning and evening hours of peak consumption, when solar power plants are barely operating, and demand rises sharply.
Therefore, Ukrainian energy officials—explaining the current rise in electricity consumption as a result of the hot weather in the country and, consequently, more active use of air conditioners—supplement these explanations with advice and appeals directed at consumers. It is probably worth repeating them:
- shift peak electricity consumption to the period when industrial solar power plants operate most efficiently—from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.;
- use electricity sparingly in the evening—from 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.;
- do not turn on several high-power electrical appliances at the same time during these hours.
But the main reason for the increase in electricity consumption on hot days is the widespread use of air conditioners in apartments, offices, shopping centers, and businesses. Stanislav Ignatyev gives the following example: a household air conditioner typically consumes 0.8–2 kW of electricity, and if millions of such devices are running simultaneously, the load on the grid increases by hundreds of megawatts or even several gigawatts.
According to the expert, in addition to air conditioners, the rise in electricity consumption during the summer is also influenced by the operation of refrigeration equipment in stores and at industrial facilities; increased use of ventilation systems; the active operation of water supply pumping stations; increased demand in resort regions; a reduction in electricity generation at some power plants due to heat or water shortages.
Ensuring Energy Balance
Over the past few years, Ukrainians have learned firsthand what power outages are—both planned and emergency ones. They’ve also come to understand what a blackout is. And, by the way, not just from personal experience, because blackouts happen not only in war-torn areas. One need only recall April 28, 2025, when tens of millions of consumers in Spain, Portugal, and Andorra were left without power.
The most recent Ukrainian example of an emergency power restriction occurred last week in the capital, when, due to a technical malfunction at one of the power facilities — emergency blackouts were implemented in some districts of Kyiv, and all categories of consumers were left without power for several hours.
As Stanislav Ignatyev, chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, explains, emergency or blackout-style power cuts are implemented when a sudden imbalance occurs in the system: due to a massive missile or drone strike; an accident at a large power unit; damage to main substations; or a sharp drop in frequency in the power grid. It is precisely in such cases that the operator must immediately reduce the load to prevent a cascading failure.
According to the expert, planned outages are implemented when the projected power deficit exceeds the capacity to compensate for it through domestic generation and imports.
A full-scale blackout, however, can only become a reality if several adverse factors coincide simultaneously. Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, explains:
“Blackouts are a systemic failure resulting from a combination of several factors. And they can never be ruled out, even in peacetime. During the war, we’ve essentially experienced blackouts or situations where we were one step away from them. Simply put, a blackout is when the system becomes uncontrollable, and essentially everything shuts down automatically in a cascade. In contrast, the existence of scheduled power outages means that the system is under control.”
Stanislav Ignatyev, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, believes there is currently no basis for talking about an inevitable nationwide blackout. And although risks remain, according to the expert’s assessment, the Ukrainian power grid has become significantly more resilient in recent years: it is synchronized with the European ENTSO-E grid, has the capacity to import up to 2.45 GW, and has also been equipped with additional protection and backup measures.
“A much more realistic scenario for the summer and next winter involves local or regional power outages, as well as the temporary reinstatement of load-shedding schedules during peak hours. According to experts’ estimates, even under a relatively favorable scenario, the summer deficit could amount to about 1 GW, and under a pessimistic scenario—up to 6 GW, which will require additional restrictions for consumers,” states Stanislav Ignatyev.
Thus, according to him, the main challenge for Ukraine today is not the threat of an inevitable blackout, but the need to balance the system on a daily basis amid the consequences of the war, seasonal maintenance, and peak loads, while maintaining a stable power supply for the population and the economy.
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