Will There Be Widespread Power Outages This Summer? An Expert Explains What Lies Ahead for Ukraine’s Power Grid After a Harsh Winter
2 July 22:08
FORECAST
After the most challenging fall-winter season, the Ukrainian power grid is entering the summer of 2026 facing significant challenges, but also seeing a gradual restoration of damaged facilities. Despite traditionally lower electricity consumption during the warmer months, the risk of shortages remains due to widespread damage to power generation facilities, repairs to nuclear power units, and the threat of new Russian attacks, writes "Komersant Ukrainian".
Experts note that the summer months will be crucial for preparing the power grid for the next heating season.
How Much of the Power Grid Has Been Restored
During the period of massive Russian strikes, beginning in October 2025, Ukraine lost or temporarily took offline more than 9 GW of generating capacity. Work is currently underway to restore damaged power plants and connect new distributed generation facilities.
The government expects to restore approximately 6 GW of capacity by the start of the new heating season. In addition, it plans to commission another 1.5 GW of distributed generation by the end of the year, which should make the power grid more resilient to potential attacks.
If the pace of repairs continues, the electricity supply situation may gradually improve over the summer.
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Why Summer Remains a Challenging Period
Experts emphasize that it is not yet possible to guarantee the complete absence of restrictions. The state of the power grid this summer will depend on several factors at once:
- the pace of the repair campaign;
- the ability to import electricity from European countries;
- the commissioning of new generating capacity;
- the security situation and the risk of new Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
Under favorable conditions, large-scale rolling blackouts can be avoided. At the same time, in the event of new damage or prolonged periods of peak consumption, localized restrictions cannot be ruled out.
Although electricity consumption is typically lower in the summer, the system will operate under exceptional conditions this year. Some nuclear power plant units will, as is customary, undergo scheduled maintenance, so the importance of flexible generation will increase significantly.
It is thermal generation and combined heat and power plants that ensure rapid balancing of the power system, promptly covering sharp spikes in consumption—for example, during extreme heat, when a large number of air conditioners are running simultaneously, or during the evening hours of peak load. It is these facilities that have sustained the most damage as a result of Russian attacks.
Serhiy Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno, reported that the power grid will be operating under extreme strain in the coming days. According to him, in Kyiv alone, every additional 3-degree rise in temperature adds about 100 MW to the power grid’s load.
He explained that following the Russian attacks this winter, power engineers managed to restore a significant portion of the damaged equipment to operation, but an active repair campaign is currently underway. Some power facilities are undergoing restoration, while others are operating practically at the limits of their technical capabilities. At the same time, Kovalenko noted that energy officials expect to get through this period without large-scale restrictions, but Ukrainians should be prepared for various scenarios.
In particular, he recommends charging phones, laptops, and power banks in advance, as well as monitoring announcements from distribution system operators and local power companies regarding possible restrictions.
However, it is still too early to speak of inevitable large-scale power outages. Everything will depend on the weather, new attacks by Russia, the ability to import electricity, and the behavior of consumers themselves.
This was stated in an exclusive comment "Komersant Ukrainian" Stanislav Ignatyev, an energy expert and professor at Poltava Polytechnic University, spoke about this.
The heat only exacerbates the problem, but it is not the cause
According to the expert, the Ukrainian power grid is currently operating practically at the limit of its technical capabilities. At the same time, the current situation should not be attributed solely to abnormally high temperatures. Ignatyev explains that the country has lost a significant portion of its flexible generation capacity. According to various estimates, up to 80% of the thermal power plants that previously covered peak loads have been damaged or lost.
At the same time, high temperatures also significantly affect the system’s balance. The widespread use of air conditioners means that during peak consumption hours, the load can increase by another 1–2 GW.
Despite the challenging situation, the expert believes that, compared to the summer of 2024–25, the Ukrainian power grid has become significantly more resilient. Several factors have contributed to this: expanded opportunities for electricity imports from the European Union, the active development of distributed generation, and large-scale business investments in their own power sources. In particular, in the first five months of 2026 alone, private solar power plants fed nearly 545 million kWh of electricity into the power grid.
“The problem today lies not so much in a shortage of electricity as in an insufficient reserve capacity to handle peak loads.”
Will large-scale rollingblackouts returnthis summer?
According to Ignatyev, it is too early to say that large-scale blackouts are inevitable. How the situation develops will depend on four key factors.
The first is the weather. If temperatures remain above +35 degrees for an extended period, consumption could rise sharply. Analysts estimate that even without new damage, the deficit could reach about 0.7 GW, and during a prolonged heat wave, it could rise to 2.4 GW.
The second factor is possible new Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
The third is the volume of electricity imports from EU countries, which currently serves as a “safety cushion” during the evening hours.
The fourth is responsible electricity consumption by the public and businesses.
“If the most energy-intensive appliances are used primarily at night, this will help avoid the implementation of power rationing schedules.”
The expert also points out another positive trend: an increasing number of businesses are switching to autonomous power generation. Gas-fired cogeneration plants, rooftop solar power stations, and energy storage systems are already gradually reducing the load on the national grid.
That is why, even if rolling blackouts do have to be implemented, they will most likely be localized and hourly, rather than as widespread as during the most difficult periods of previous years.
Ignatyev also highlights the scheduled maintenance of nuclear power plant units, which traditionally takes place in the summer. According to him, each unit taken offline for maintenance represents a temporary loss of approximately 1,000 MW of baseload generation. At the same time, it is impossible to postpone this work, as it is carried out in accordance with international nuclear safety requirements.
“Scheduled maintenance creates an additional shortfall, but it is precisely this maintenance that ensures the reliable operation of nuclear power generation during the heating season.”
That is why Ukraine is simultaneously increasing electricity imports and making maximum use of renewable energy sources.
The operation of hydroelectric power plants remains an additional challenge. Due to seasonal decreases in river water levels, the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP, and damage to certain hydropower facilities, their capacity is currently limited.
Solar power plants actively generate electricity during the day but cannot compensate for the shortfall in the evening, when generation drops sharply while consumption, conversely, rises.
At the same time, distributed gas-fired generation continues to develop in Ukraine. Its share is gradually increasing, but for now it only partially compensates for the loss of reserve capacity needed for the stable operation of the power system.
Thus, the summer of 2026 will serve as a test of sorts for Ukraine’s energy sector. If the maintenance campaign proceeds as planned and new large-scale attacks can be avoided, the power grid will have a better chance of entering the fall-winter season in significantly better condition.
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