Why “Cicada” Is More Dangerous: An Epidemiologist Identifies the Main Risks
23 April 10:50
EXPERT
The new variant of the BA.3.2 coronavirus subvariant, informally dubbed “Cicada,” is distinguished not so much by greater virulence as by its ability to evade neutralization by antibodies produced by the body following previous waves of the coronavirus. Epidemiologist Natalia Vinograd discussed this in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Following the Ministry of Health’s announcement of the first officially confirmed case in Ukraine of the BA.3.2 “Cicada” coronavirus subvariant, many questions arose: Is it more dangerous than previous variants? Does existing immunity help? And who is more likely to experience severe illness?
Vinograd explained that, according to preliminary estimates, “Cicada” does not appear to be more severe than other current COVID-19 variants, but it has an important characteristic—it partially evades the immune response already acquired.
“This is a new variant that isn’t effectively neutralized by the antibodies we developed from previous encounters with the coronavirus. This is, perhaps, its main characteristic,” the epidemiologist explained.
Is “Cicada” more dangerous than previous variants?
Natalia Vynohrad says this variant began spreading from the African continent about a year ago and has already reached Australia, China, the U.S., and Europe.
“It began spreading across the globe from the African continent a year ago. It has already been in Australia and China, and has reached the United States and Europe. In other words, it has actually been circulating on the planet for quite some time. And it is certain that it has been in Ukraine for a long time,” she notes.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Health reports that BA.3.2 was first detected in November 2024 in South Africa, after which it spread to at least 23 countries worldwide.
Natalia Vynohrad believes that the current variant does not appear to be as aggressive as the coronavirus was at the start of the pandemic.
“It’s not as aggressive as it was at the beginning, when we had the pandemic,” the epidemiologist explains.
She also adds that an increase in the number of mutations does not automatically mean the emergence of more pathogenic forms of the virus:
“Unfortunately, the number of mutations is increasing. And, fortunately, those mutations do not lead to the formation of more highly pathogenic variants. In other words, virulence is not increasing significantly.”
Why children may get sicker than adults
One of Natalia Vynohrad’s key points concerns the difference between children and adults. According to her, the clinical picture may be more pronounced in children because they often lack the same immune experience as older people.
“The clinical picture is, for the most part, more pronounced in children, but not in adults,” she says.
She adds:
“The fact that children get sick more often is simply because they haven’t encountered the coronavirus yet, obviously. They aren’t vaccinated, which is also true. In other words, this is a fairly natural process.”
At the same time, she notes, adults often experience milder symptoms because they have already been exposed to the virus:
“And the reason adults get sick more mildly is because they have immunity from previous exposure—whether they had clinical symptoms or simply came into contact with the virus.”
What are the symptoms of the new variant?
When asked about symptoms, Natalia Vynohrad responds that they are generally typical of COVID-19 and acute respiratory infections.
“Yes, the same as for an acute respiratory viral infection,” says the expert.
According to the Ministry of Health, the symptoms of the “Cicada” subvariant remain typical of COVID-19. These include:
- runny nose;
- fever;
- cough;
- headache;
- fatigue;
- loss of smell or taste;
- possible eye irritation;
- rash.
Who is most at risk of developing severe symptoms
Natalia Vynohrad specifically notes that people in high-risk medical groups may react more severely to the new variant.
“Those in high-risk groups will definitely be the first to react to any complications and may require hospitalization,” she explains.
The expert then details exactly who this refers to:
“These are people with diabetes or other endocrine disorders, as well as those with cardiovascular conditions and respiratory system damage.”
She specifically highlights people with compromised immune systems or acquired immunodeficiency.
The Ministry of Health also explicitly recommends that people in high-risk groups consult their family doctor regarding vaccination or booster shots.
Why it’s important to respond correctly to the onset of the disease
Natalia Vynohrad emphasizes not only the characteristics of the variant itself but also people’s behavior at the first symptoms.
“You simply need to respond correctly to the onset of any illness; there are two benefits here: for yourself—you won’t be going out and worsening the clinical course of the disease—and for society—you won’t be infecting others,” the expert concludes.
In practice, this means: if you develop symptoms of an upper respiratory infection, especially if you are in a high-risk group, you should not try to “power through” the illness, delay seeing a doctor, or continue close contact with others.
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