Study: Business development requires end of war – research
19 September 2025 13:52
The end of the war remains the main condition for the recovery and development of Ukrainian business. This conclusion was made as a result of a survey conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) among 474 industrial enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine in August 2025, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
War is the main barrier
According to the study, 89% of respondents named the end of the war as the key factor in improving the business environment. Tax cuts came in second place (37.6%), which is 10 percentage points less than at the beginning of the year. The third most important issue for business is the booking of employees (25.1%).
Oksana Kuzyakiv, Executive Director of the IER, emphasized:
“The event “end of the war” ranks first in all our semi-annual measurements. This is the key factor that, according to respondents, affects the business environment. Now there are 89% of them.”
Recovery of business activity
In August, the Business Confidence Index increased after two months of decline – from 0.05 to 0.08. The positive value of the indicator means that businesses do not see a significant deterioration compared to last year, but do not expect a sharp improvement either. The highest scores are shown by large enterprises (0.29), while the index remains negative for microbusinesses (-0.33).
Also, in August , 63% of enterprises operated at full or almost full capacity, which is significantly higher than a year ago (41%).
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Business expectations
Optimism in the manufacturing sector is growing. The Index of Expectations of Changes in Production rose to 0.49 due to an increase in the share of optimists to 46.8%. A similar trend is observed in exports, where the index rose to 0.48.
However, in the long term, uncertainty has increased: 36.5% of entrepreneurs do not know what will happen to their business in two years, compared to 31.4% in July.
Key obstacles
The key challenges for businesses include
- lack of labor (62%);
- security risks (52%);
- price increases (52%).
Senior Research Fellow at the IER Yevhen Angel emphasized:
“In August, the lack of labor increased by 5 percentage points to 62%. And if in July this problem was ranked first along with the obstacle of “dangerous work”, in August the danger factor moved to the second place.”
Businesses also report difficulties with decreased demand (28%), transportation (23%), supply chain disruption (15%), and lack of working capital (12%).
Inflation expectations and the labor market
Inflation expectations are rising: more than 40% of companies expect prices for raw materials and finished goods to rise further. The situation on the labor market is also difficult: more than half of the companies have difficulty finding qualified personnel.
Assessment of government policy
In August, the share of positive assessments of the government’s economic policy increased from 2% to 8%, which may be due to a certain increase in optimism in business expectations. At the same time, 55% of respondents remain neutral, and 25% have a negative assessment of the government’s actions.
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