The dollar and euro rose to record highs again: exchange rates as of 12 July
12 July 2024 10:16
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised the dollar and euro exchange rates against the hryvnia to new historical highs. This is evidenced by the data on the regulator’s website, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
On Friday, 12 July, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar to hryvnia exchange rate at 40.88 UAH/USD, thus weakening the hryvnia by 17 kopecks compared to the previous figure.
The national currency also weakened significantly against the euro. According to the regulator’s website, the NBU’s official exchange rate against the euro on Friday was set at 44.38 UAH/€, meaning that the hryvnia fell by 30 kopeks.
By 16:00, the hryvnia to the dollar was set at 40.98/40.91 UAH/USD and the euro at 44.46/44.46 UAH/€ on the interbank foreign exchange market.
The Cabinet of Ministers in its Budget Declaration for 2025-2027 predicts a rise in the dollar to more than UAH 45, as well as a slowdown in economic growth next year. The average hryvnia to dollar exchange rate is expected to reach UAH 45 per dollar in 2025, UAH 46.5 in 2026, and UAH 46.4 in 2027.
What Ukrainians should expect from the dollar in autumn
There will be no significant rise in the dollar by the end of the summer, assured Oleg Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club. The exchange rate will average up to UAH 41 per dollar, no more. At the same time, the National Bank will periodically strengthen or weaken the hryvnia. Pendzin states that the NBU sold $615 million on the interbank foreign exchange market last week. “The national bank is essentially the only seller. This means that it sets the rules of the game. Moreover, it is the regulator.
“In June, the NBU reached the average annual exchange rate that was included in the state budget. And now it will be slowly changing to reach UAH 41 by the end of the year, UAH 41 per $1 with a little tail. However, the average annual exchange rate should reach UAH 40.7 per $1,” the expert said.
The economist is confident that there will be no sudden collapse of the hryvnia this year. It is all thanks to the same financial assistance from the allies.
“As of today, we have fully confirmed macro-financial assistance until the end of this year. Therefore, there can’t even be a basis for a fall, because all the macrofinance will come – on time and in full,”
– Oleg Pendzin said.
However, Oleg Ustenko, an economist and Advisor to the President of Ukraine from 28 May 2019 to 30 March 2024, predicts that the exchange rate will be at least 44 UAH/USD by the end of the year.
“By the end of the year, we will not be at the levels we are at now. Firstly, as I said, the average annual exchange rate is set at 42.5, and if at the beginning of the year the rate was 38 and it was maintained at that level for almost six months, then, accordingly, to see the average annual exchange rate of 42.5, we should see at least UAH 44 at the end of the year,”
– Ustenko summarised.
