Bread Prices in Ukraine May Rise by Up to 15%: When to Expect the New Prices

10 July 20:07

FORECAST

Bread prices in Ukraine could rise by 10–15% by the end of the year. At the same time, no sharp price increases are expected in the coming months, as the harvest is currently in full swing. This forecast was announced by Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, in a comment to "Komersant Ukrainian".

According to the expert, there are several reasons for the rise in bread prices. First and foremost is the increase in labor costs.

“There’s no doubt that prices will rise. Because wages are indeed going up,” Kozachenko noted.

He pointed out that the average salary in Ukraine has already exceeded 30,000 hryvnias, and in large agricultural companies, it is even higher. At the same time, he said, last year’s average salary was approximately 15,000 hryvnias lower.

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Another factor is the constant rise in fuel prices, without which it is impossible to harvest crops, transport grain, and deliver flour and finished products to stores. In addition, prices are affected by the unstable situation on the global oil market, which could lead to another increase in fuel costs.

The labor shortage also remains a major problem for the agricultural sector.

“The shortage of workers is one of the main reasons why wages are rising,” emphasized the president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation.

Rising labor costs ultimately affect the cost of bread.

Logistics also plays a significant role. According to Kozachenko, the main grain carrier—Ukrzaliznytsia—is “increasing its rates by 30%,”which raises producers’ costs and may be reflected in the final price of baked goods.

However, no significant price spike is expected in the near future. During the peak harvest season, the supply of grain on the market is high, so the cost of bread may rise only slightly—by approximately 1.5–2%.

According to the expert’s forecast, the main price increase should be expected starting in late September. That is when producers will begin to fully factor rising costs for wages, fuel, and logistics into their product prices.