The Cabinet of Ministers has lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year: what figure are we talking about?
17 June 12:16
Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that she expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2% this year, according to Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, a member of parliament from the “Servant of the People” party, following a meeting of the Council on Entrepreneurship Support, as reported by "Komersant Ukrainian".
At the same time, according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, the updated macroeconomic forecast on which the Budget Declaration is based projects a lower estimate for this year’s GDP growth—1.6%.
The government’s forecast, included in the 2026 state budget, calls for 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency last week that it had been revised downward, though he did not specify the new figure at the time.
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It should be noted that, by a resolution dated June 4, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the forecast for Ukraine’s economic and social development for 2027–2029, which includes two scenarios. Under the optimistic scenario, which assumes the war will end by 2027, GDP growth next year will be 4.5% with inflation at 8.9%, while under the less optimistic scenario, it will be 1.3% with inflation at 8%.
In the following two years, the difference between the scenarios is not as significant: for example, in 2028, the first scenario projects GDP growth of 5.3% with inflation at 6.9%, while the second scenario projects 4.1% growth with inflation at 8.2%.
Finally, in 2029, under the more optimistic scenario, GDP will grow by 6.7% with inflation at 5.1%, while under the less optimistic scenario, it will grow by 5% with inflation at 5.9%.
As for the hryvnia exchange rate, the government estimates its average value for this year at 44.4 UAH/$ for calculations, and 45.8 UAH/$ by the end of the year, while for next year—47.1 UAH/$1 and 48.3 UAH/$1, respectively, and in 2029—50.7 UAH/$1 and 51.5 UAH/$1.
In April, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8%, but left it at 2.8% for next year and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028.
Last week, the IMF downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth this year to 1.0–1.6%, whereas in its April World Economic Outlook (WEO) it had estimated it at 2%, and when approving the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program in late February, it projected a range of 1.8–2.5%.
The EBRD, in turn, lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%, while the World Bank lowered its forecast to 1.2%.
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