A New Standard: Are Ukrainian Gas Stations Ready to Supply Drivers with A-95-E10 Gasoline?
25 June 19:00
ANALYSIS FROM 
Starting July 1, all gas stations in Ukraine are required to sell E10 fuel, which meets the new standard and contains the specified amount of bioethanol. "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated whether suppliers, regulators, and consumers are ready to use this alternative fuel.
This July’s attempt to introduce alcohol-blended fuel at Ukrainian gas stations is not the first. It was supposed to appear there as early as May of last year. However, due to problems with logistics and licensing, as well as the lack of readiness of the system to monitor compliance with bioethanol content requirements in fuel, the imposition of penalties was postponed—first to January 1, and then—by a February parliamentary decision—until July 1, 2026. During this time, the mandatory biofuel content standard for gasoline has also changed: from 5 to over 7 percent. And that’s not the only thing that has changed.
Attempt Number Three
The uncertainty surrounding the date for reinstating penalties for noncompliance with the bioethanol content requirement in fuel worked to some extent in their favor. In the winter, when the issue was “up in the air,” importers, to play it safe, brought in fairly large shipments of gasoline containing bioethanol. According to the publication “NaftoRynok,” in just the first ten days of February, 25 importers brought in 12.9 thousand metric tons of A-95 gasoline with bioethanol, accounting for 26.2% of total A-95 gasoline imports. This helped importers fine-tune their supply chains and allowed Ukrainian consumers to become more familiar with the new fuel. This provides sufficient grounds to hope that the third attempt to officially introduce alcohol-blended fuel at Ukrainian gas stations will be successful. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95 Consulting Group,” agrees .
“Everyone now understands what to do. This isn’t rocket science, and I’m confident that everything will go smoothly. It’s a completely manageable situation.”
As for monitoring and fines, according to Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the consulting firm “NaftoRynok,” it is currently not possible to enforce such sanctions. But there are incentives to comply with the law. Especially since companies will be required to report the actual content of bio-components in the gasoline they sell.
“Companies are motivated to comply with this program by the risk that sanctions or fines could be imposed retroactively. If the law specifies that a particular type of product must be sold, then that is the only product that should be sold. Any deviation constitutes a violation of the law.”
However, according to Serhiy Kuyun, the system is currently functioning—and will continue to do so—even without punitive incentives.
“The main incentive is to try to make a sale. In this shrinking market, where consumption is falling, selling some kind of obscure fuel right now is more costly. That’s why no one is interested in selling poor-quality fuel,” the expert believes.
Ukrainian drivers will mainly be offered E10-standard gasoline at gas stations. Incidentally, the legally mandated increase in the required biofuel content in gasoline—from 5 to over 7 percent—has had a positive impact on cooperation with European partners.
As Serhiy Kuyun explained at the time, supplying E5 fuel—which is not typical in Europe—to Ukraine required assembling separate batches and incurred higher costs. In contrast, E10 fuel is widely available on the European market, which simplifies logistics tailored to Ukraine’s needs.
According to Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the consulting firm “NaftoRynok,” major Ukrainian retail chains had already agreed to import E10 gasoline from abroad.
“Major operators have contracted for and have already imported the first—and perhaps even the second—batches of E10 fuel. These are the 10 companies that are the largest gasoline sellers in Ukraine; we contacted them and determined both the volumes of supply and the suppliers,” the expert notes.
According to “NaftoRynok,” oil refineries in Lithuania and Poland (Orlen), Romania (OMV Petrom and Rompetrol), and Germany (PCK) are ready to supply E7-E10 blends to Ukrainian traders. At the same time, as Oleksandr Sirenko notes, the transition to the new fuel standard will not have a significant impact on prices.
“The wholesale price per metric ton of gasoline blended with alcohol is $20–$30 higher. That is, comparing E10 and E0, the difference is $20 or $30 per metric ton, depending on the supplier. I hope no one will notice this difference per liter. And it’s hard to call the market stable right now: oil prices are fluctuating, but all forecasts indicate that we’re heading toward a decline in prices. “In other words, I hope that gasoline prices will gradually follow crude oil prices downward, and the end consumer won’t even have a chance to notice this difference,” the expert notes.
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Location Matters
Ukrainian gas stations will sell E10-standard gasoline produced at refineries in Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania, and Germany. Moreover, this gasoline will most likely contain Ukrainian bioethanol. Such is the paradox. Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the consulting firm “NaftoRynok,” draws attention to this.
“Currently, in most cases, Ukrainian ethanol is exported to Europe and returns to Ukraine mixed with gasoline in various proportions. In other words, Ukrainian ethanol goes abroad, comes back, and traders essentially pay for this added cost.”
However, according to the expert, there are also operators who offer a blend produced in Ukraine with the addition of lower-priced Ukrainian bioethanol, and they have been operating this way for several years now. This gives them a competitive advantage. Although the volume of such offerings is small. In other words, there is currently an imbalance, with imported products accounting for 100 percent of the market. According to Oleksandr Sirenko, the market will correct this situation on its own.
“When adding 10% bioethanol—that is, a cheaper substance—provides a financial advantage, everyone will try to save money. The necessary experience will come with time. Right now, almost all contracts are long-term. This means we won’t see this bioethanol miracle until January 1, because until the end of the year, gasoline blended with alcohol will be purchased abroad. Those in Ukraine who have been preparing the blend have an advantage. They have access to cheap bioethanol and simply sell gasoline,” the expert notes.
In his view, we need to develop the domestic market and blend imported gasoline with Ukrainian bioethanol right here in Ukraine.
“Either we finance something abroad, and things improve there, or at least part of the money can stay within Ukraine. To me, the advantage here is obvious. Especially since we have bioethanol production capacity far greater than what is needed for the E10 program,” the expert emphasizes.
In fact, introducing a mandate for a minimum bioethanol content in fuel is intended, among other things, to stimulate bioethanol production in Ukraine. It also aims to reduce harmful emissions and strengthen energy independence. And the production of gasoline with bio-components in Ukraine is a logical step in this direction. That said, these calculations have been disrupted by the war and enemy attacks on Ukraine’s oil refining facilities. But the strategic direction is clear. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95 Consulting Group,” echoes this view.
“This regulation was adopted to provide a real incentive for our agricultural sector, so that we would use this bioethanol—this fuel that we produce domestically—and so that we would no longer need to import it. Why is it difficult to implement right now? The reasons are purely security-related. But after the war, this will definitely happen. The situation will change, and this fuel will be produced primarily domestically. This will definitely happen because it will be both much more convenient and more cost-effective. And E10 fuel is just the beginning,” the expert emphasizes.
Incidentally, the maximum permitted ethanol content in gasoline in the EU is currently 10% (E10). However, there are proposals to allow the use of gasoline with up to 20% ethanol (E20) in the European Union. And the European Commission is already examining this issue.
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