Russia is preparing training grounds for a new large-scale mobilization in October: what is known
24 June 17:11
Russian authorities are discussing the possibility of a new mobilization to replenish the army fighting in Ukraine after the State Duma elections scheduled for September, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing Russian propaganda media.
Preparations for a mass recruitment drive, according to one of these sources, have been underway for several months, though officials will never officially refer to the planned operation as a mobilization.
“Starting in October,” the military will be ready to accept tens of thousands of people for accelerated training at military training grounds and, in such batches, “distribute them among active units,” said a source who oversees contract recruitment at one of the state-owned corporations. According to him, on the front lines, “there are constant complaints about a severe shortage of personnel,” and those responsible for replenishing the army have been tasked with “preparing.”
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A final “decision on this matter has not been made,” emphasizes a source close to the domestic policy bloc within the presidential administration. “Things aren’t going exactly as planned. And the people involved in the process have started to get creative,” he explains. According to the source, mobilization is possible in the fall of 2026, after the elections.
Another source close to the Presidential Administration is aware of “various roadmaps for bringing the army up to full strength.” “There are different scenarios, and mobilization is one of them,” he emphasizes.
The influx of contract soldiers, lured to the front lines by bonuses in the millions from the Ministry of Defense, is slowing. In the first quarter, it fell to 800–1,000 people per day and, according to Western intelligence estimates, is no longer sufficient to cover losses on the front lines. Recruitment rates in Moscow have nearly halved: 1,708 people in April and 1,378 in May—a thousand fewer than a year earlier, according to a source at City Hall.
“It’s as if there are no more people left,” said one of those previously mobilized. According to him, his regiment is at best 40% staffed, and the new recruits “are incapable of fighting.” “Some are taken from prison, others from the streets. They’re literally homeless. They’re criminals, and at such an advanced age and with such ailments that they can barely stand on their feet,” he complains.
There are plenty of reasons for a new mobilization, says a source close to the Kremlin: “The failure of the offensive, the loss of the initiative, and the impotence of the air defense.” However, within the Presidential Administration’s domestic policy bloc, there are doubts that the benefits of mobilization will outweigh the risks. “It’s unclear what mobilization will fundamentally change, aside from sparking protests and causing the economy to collapse,” says another source.
European intelligence agencies consider both a new mobilization and a transition to a militarized economy to be hypothetically possible. The military allegedly guarantees Putin “full control over four Ukrainian regions, provided there are sufficient human resources,” said a source close to one of the intelligence services. “Putin does not want to end the war and is prepared to fight for another two or three years. There are fears of instability,” the source added.
The first round of mobilization, carried out in the fall of 2022, caused the government’s approval ratings to plummet, eroded public support for the war, and prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad. But the mistakes made four years ago have been taken into account, sources say: an electronic draft notice system has been launched, an automatic ban on traveling abroad while summoned by the military registration and enlistment office has been introduced, and the military registration and enlistment offices themselves have been switched to year-round conscription.
It was previously reported that the Kremlin would have to announce a mass mobilization to continue the war with Ukraine, as the Russian military-industrial complex is operating at full capacity and is unable to increase weapons production.
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