Power outages could last 6–8 hours: an expert has issued a forecast for the summer
20 May 13:31
Power outages lasting up to 6–8 hours a day are possible in Ukraine this summer. Oleg Popenko, head of the Utility Consumers’ Union, made this statement on the Raнок.LIVE program, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
This scenario could unfold if there is a prolonged heatwave exceeding 30°C, when the load on the power grid rises sharply due to the widespread use of air conditioners, fans, and other household appliances.
Why power outages are possible in the summer
According to Popenko, the Ukrainian power grid remains vulnerable due to damage to energy facilities. This refers, in particular, to the consequences of Russian attacks on thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, and hydroelectric power plants.
As a result, the system has limited capacity to meet demand during peak consumption hours.
The situation may be particularly difficult during periods of:
- extreme heat;
- peak evening consumption;
- high demand due to air conditioning;
- new Russian shelling of energy infrastructure;
- shortages in domestic power generation.
How many hours of power outages can be expected
Oleg Popenko predicts that in the event of temperatures exceeding 30°C, power outages could last 6–8 hours a day.
“As the experience of 2023 shows, outages can last 6–8 hours a day when temperatures exceed 30°C. This is our reality,” Popenko stated.
According to him, it will be difficult to avoid restrictions if high temperatures persist for several days in a row.
When the load on the power grid is highest
The greatest load on the power grid usually occurs during the morning and evening hours.
In the summer, the evening peak can be particularly challenging, when people return home and simultaneously turn on:
- air conditioners;
- fans;
- water heaters;
- electric stoves;
- washing machines;
- chargers;
- other household appliances.
It is during these hours that load-shedding schedules may be implemented if a shortage occurs in the power grid.
Will electricity imports help?
Electricity imports can partially support the system, but, according to the expert, they are not always able to fully meet Ukraine’s needs during peak consumption hours.
The reason is a significant increase in demand during heat waves and limited capacity to transmit electricity from abroad.
Therefore, even with imports, power outage schedules may still be necessary.
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What else will affect the situation
Several factors will influence the duration and scale of summer blackouts:
| Factor | How it affects |
|---|---|
| Temperatures above 30°C | Increased use of air conditioners and fans |
| Generation capacity | Damaged thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and other facilities reduce system reserves |
| Russian shelling | New strikes could worsen the electricity balance |
| Electricity imports | Helps, but does not always cover peak demand |
| Consumer behavior | Energy conservation during peak hours reduces the load |
Why summer blackouts differ from winter ones
In winter, the main load on the system is often associated with heating, lighting, and electric heaters. In summer, however, cooling becomes the critical factor.
When temperatures exceed 30°C, electricity consumption spikes sharply due to air conditioners. If, at the same time, part of the generation capacity is damaged or under repair, the system may not be able to handle peak loads.
Ukraine has a chance to get through the summer without power outages, but only if there are no new large-scale shelling attacks. As noted by Vitaliy Zaychenko, Chairman of the Board of Ukrenergo, the situation this summer will be difficult due to major repairs to the power grid.
The main problem at present remains the damaged power units at thermal and hydroelectric power plants.
How Ukrainians can prepare
If rolling blackouts are implemented, it is advisable to prepare in advance for possible outages.
It is helpful to have:
- charged power banks;
- a supply of drinking water;
- flashlights or battery-powered lamps;
- a supply of cash;
- charged phones;
- a well-thought-out schedule for using household appliances;
- a plan for people working remotely.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on announcements from your local power company, as that’s where they publish current schedules and alerts.
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