Probing the Situation or Putin’s trap? What could be the “peace plan” from Washington?
23 April 2025 19:18
OPINION
The United States has presented Ukraine with the so-called “Trump’s final offer,” which provides for a freeze on hostilities, recognition of Russia’s control over the occupied territories, and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO. Kyiv is to respond in the coming days.
This was reported by Axios media outlet, citing its own sources among politicians and diplomats.
The proposal has sparked controversy and concern among Ukraine’s allies, as well as discussions in foreign and Ukrainian media. [ Kommersant asked opinion leaders – a political scientist, a military expert, a member of parliament, a historian and a volunteer – whether official Washington could really voice such a proposal as a scenario for ending the conflict with Russia, and what it means for Ukraine.
Viacheslav Ilchenko, volunteer
The civic activist and volunteer questioned the very fact that the proposal to Ukraine to actually accept the Russian occupation could have come from the White House at all.
“It seems to me that such a proposal can hardly come from the United States. We’ve been at war for four years, our people are dying, and to just stop where we started? I don’t see the point in all this.
My opinion is, how can we continue to look the guys who are on the front line? What are they fighting for? For some gray-haired uncle to say: “That’s it, enough playing, we’re done. Let them take what they want, and let us leave what remains. Goodbye.” I don’t agree, under any circumstances,” Ilchenko said.
Oleksandr Paliy, historian
He believes that the proposal to legally recognize Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories and de facto abandon them could well have come from official Washington, given the domestic and foreign policies pursued by the new head of state, Donald Trump.
“I don’t know what the situation is with Crimea and the details of all this, but from the point of view of Trump’s ideology, such a story is quite possible,” Paliy said.
The historian added that in reality, the US president is currently doing almost nothing against Russia.
“He threatens with some sanctions, but in reality, there are no sanctions to date. Therefore, perhaps he wants to make Ukraine pay for the occupation,” Paliy said.
Georgiy Mazurashu, Member of Parliament of Ukraine
The parliamentarian expressed doubt that Ukraine’s partners could offer official Kyiv to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, as they know perfectly well that this does not comply not only with the Constitution of Ukraine, but also with any norms of international law. According to the MP, they could theoretically discuss such prospects only with the Crimean Tatars and Crimeans, with a predictable negative reaction.
“But as for unofficial recognition, there may be some compromises to stop the bloodshed. Especially if we take into account that since the summer of 2022, we have obvious problems with attracting citizens who are ready to physically and morally defend the country to the defense forces,” Mazurashu said.
He added that if the unofficial recognition of Russian control over the territories they actually control allows to stop the war, this may be a fairly acceptable option in today’s Ukrainian realities.
“In the realities when the civilized world is unwilling or unable to help put the aggressors in their place in an effective and decisive way,” Mazurashu summarized.
Dmytro Snegiryov, military expert
Snegirev is sure that this is not the final position of the United States. The day before, the Russian side denied information about the US proposals to Russia to recognize Crimea, but to withdraw Russian troops from the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
“I understand that there is a so-called probing going on. That is, possible options are being thrown to both sides of the war and, accordingly, mechanisms are being worked out. At the same time, military and political pressure is being exerted on both Ukraine and Russia. Including the moment when the meeting of the Foreign Secretary in London was canceled,” the expert said.
Oleh Lisnyi, political analyst
The political analyst also believes that the version of the “peace agreement” published by the American news website Axios cannot be final.
“After all, where the United States is, nothing can be final. I believe that the way it was presented in the media, it is a means of pressure on the eve of possible negotiations. Probably, this plan was supposed to be shown in London and it was believed that if the United States offered it, we should agree to it,” the expert commented on the current situation.
Oleh Lisnyi emphasized that he considers this approach of Washington to be infantile and based on a misunderstanding of Ukraine’s position and approaches to the war with Russia.
Read also: Concessions without victory: what the US is really offering and why it can break Ukraine
What you need to know about the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia according to Axios
The media writes the following: The United States expects Ukraine to respond to a peace proposal that includes recognizing Crimea as part of Russia and informally recognizing Russian control over nearly all territories occupied since the invasion in 2022.
The one-page document the US presented to Ukrainian officials in Paris last week calls it “President Trump’s final proposal.” The White House insists it is ready to walk away if the parties do not reach a deal soon.
Trump’s proposal would require significant concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has previously ruled out recognizing Russia’s occupation of Crimea and parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine.
And while Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the current front line in order to reach an agreement, he has previously rejected other elements of the American framework, such as a European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory.
A source close to the Ukrainian government said that Kyiv considers the proposal to be very biased against Russia:
“The proposal is very clear about what tangible benefits Russia will get, but it is very vague and general about what Ukraine will get.”
What Russia gets under Trump’s proposal
- “De jure” US recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea.
- “De facto recognition” of Russia’s occupation of almost the entire Luhansk region and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
- A promise that Ukraine will not become a NATO member. The text states that Ukraine may become part of the European Union.
- Lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.
- Strengthening economic cooperation with the United States, particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
What Ukraine gets under Trump’s proposal
- “Reliable security guarantees” with the participation of a special group of European countries, as well as potentially like-minded non-European countries. The document does not clearly spell out how this peacekeeping operation will function and does not mention the participation of the United States.
- Return of a small part of the Kharkiv region occupied by Russia.
- Unimpeded passage of the Dnipro River, which flows along the front line in some parts of southern Ukraine.
- Compensation and reconstruction aid, although the document does not say where the funding will come from.
Other elements of the plan
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest such facility in Europe, would be considered Ukrainian territory but operated by the United States, and electricity would be supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.
The document refers to the U.S.-Ukraine mining agreement, which Trump said would be signed on Thursday.
What’s next?
U.S. Special Representative Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow this week for his fourth meeting with Vladimir Putin, as announced by the White House on Tuesday, April 22.
A U.S. official involved in the talks said that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vitkoff worked together “to develop a framework that will bring us closer to achieving an end to the war.”
However, the official said, over the past 24 hours, there have been signs from the Ukrainians that they want to discuss a 30-day ceasefire during meetings in London on Wednesday, rather than the framework of Trump’s peace plan.
“We have decided that the Secretary of State will not go to London. Instead, the U.S. delegation will continue negotiations with their British and Ukrainian counterparts,” the official said.
Meanwhile, Rubio wrote on social network X that he had a “productive” conversation with his British counterpart and was looking forward to “next steps” after discussions in London.
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