Insanity or a weapon of last resort: is Putin ready to use a nuclear bomb?
13 June 2024 15:24
FORECAST
On 11 June, Russia launched the second stage of the exercise, with practical training in the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. This time, however, the goal is to ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the “Union State”. In other words, Putin and Lukashenko are practising a joint nuclear strike. And this is being closely watched by Ukraine and the entire Western world.
Poland has declared a nuclear threat from Russia
The nuclear threat is closer than it may seem. This was the emphasis made by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction in Berlin. He said Russia could potentially keep about 100 tactical nuclear warheads in the Kaliningrad region.
“250 kilometres north of Warsaw is the Kaliningrad region, a Russian exclave with a storage site for – according to our estimates – about 100 tactical nuclear warheads. 250 km to the east is Belarus, where Russians and Belarusians have attacked the EU border, the border of the Schengen zone,”
– radoslaw Sikorski said.
The Polish official also reminds us that the missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine enter the territory of Poland and sometimes land there.
And here it is important: is it an accidental landing or is Russia testing the West for its determination to invoke NATO Article 5 and the reaction in general? The Polish official does not specify.
But in any case, Russia has already been recorded as reacting to violations of the airspace of Croatia, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, Poland, and recently Finland. This includes concern, silence, or, at most, an investigation of the incident. And this is despite the fact that there were even casualties in Poland when a missile fell on the territory of the Lubelskie Voivodeship on 15 November 2023. At the time, NATO said that the missile was fired by Ukrainian air defence, but blamed Russia for the tragedy. However, for Putin, at least as of today, this looks like another accusation that he will put in the deep pocket of his nuclear suitcase.
“Putin has gone for escalation”: the nuclear suitcase as the last trump card
“Countries that claim to have no red lines against Russia should understand that then Russia will have no such lines”
– Putin
This was the dictator’s reaction to French President Emmanuel Macron‘s words that there are no “red lines” towards Russia. But let’s remember how many of Putin’s lines the West has already pushed back. Starting in 2017, when Trump lifted the embargo on US arms. Ending with the permission to strike at the territory of Russia with American and European weapons.
All red lines have been crossed. Putin has crossed the penultimate border in the form of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, sharing them with the self-proclaimed Lukashenko. The joint nuclear strike of the “Union State” has been practised. What’s next? Let’s find out together with nuclear energy expert Olga Kosharna specially for Komersant Ukrainian 
– Russia is using nuclear exercises for escalation. They do not intend to use tactical nuclear weapons. But the exercises usually start before important events. Now it is logical, because on 15-16 June, there will be a peace summit in Switzerland. In May, they used the exercise as a lever to prevent our partners from giving us permission to use their weapons on Russian territory.
– There is a more likely tool of nuclear blackmail.
– In February of this year, Grossi, while on site at the ZNPP, learned from the occupation administration that they intend to put one or even two power units into operation to generate electricity. Although this is not possible under the current circumstances, the conditions may change. After all, on 14 May this year, Russia sent an official note to the IAEA secretariat that they intend to build a new pumping station. Since the connection of power unit 1 to ZNPP took place 40 years ago in December, they will implement this project and bring this power unit online by December. This is dangerous. There is a possibility of a severe accident with radiation consequences due to the lack of repairs and qualified personnel. And this is real nuclear blackmail.
“It’s in the air”: we should not hope that Russian nuclear will not work
US Navy Captain 1st Class Harry Tabach saw Russian nuclear warheads with his own eyes. Exclusively for Kommersant Ukrainian
– “I am one of the few people who went on the Typhoon, a submarine that is called a shark in Russia. And once we were checking out the Topol M, a huge bandura. It was -40 outside, nothing was working around, everything was frozen, the cars wouldn’t start. But when we arrived at the hangar, we already had GPS, and suddenly everything switched on, all the lights came on, the doors opened, this bandura started up with half a turn, drove off on 18 wheels, the lid was opened and we counted the warheads. So it all worked, the mechanical part. As for the nuclear part, I did not see it with my own eyes.
– Putin convinces the whole world that Russia’s nuclear triad is more modern than any other and that from a military and technical point of view, Russia is ready for a nuclear war. Can we take his word for it?
– Everything is monitored. The Russians have not unpacked their nuclear weapons and have not put them on alert. It is impossible to hide it. It is impossible to just press the nuclear button and fly. They have to be tested, which, by the way, is what North Korea often does. It launches ballistic missiles and shows that they can at least deliver a nuclear weapon to a certain place. Then they need to test the warhead itself, to cause an explosion. This cannot be ignored. With such situations in the world, we can bring the world to nuclear war. Including Iran, which, if it hasn’t already created one, is extremely close to creating one.
– In terms of percentage, what is the probability of a nuclear war today?
– 50-50, or 52-48. I don’t know Putin’s mental state. And Putin is not just one person. He is a system. I think that there are still heads in Russia who realise that all their billions, everything they have communised over all this time, will disappear with the push of a button. There are also responsible people there. But we need to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
War as a philosophy
What if war is a way for Putin to survive? And we should not hope that anyone carrying a nuclear suitcase will be afraid to follow his orders. Back in December 2023, Peter Schroeder, an analyst at the US Central Intelligence Agency, warned:
“In fact, it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, but it is very likely that he will use them against NATO.”
And this is exactly what the dictators of the “Union State” are doing now. Putin’s nuclear warheads are already in Belarus, closer to NATO’s borders. The joint strike has been worked out. The stakes have been raised. And then it remains to analyse Putin’s mental state. Although here, too, something lies on the surface.
For decades, Putin’s favourite philosopher has been helping him justify wars.
“…I would like Russia to develop in the way the philosopher Ivan Ilyin wanted it to develop.”
– these were the words of the odious Russian Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky in May 2019.
Now let’s imagine what a philosopher who made references to Hitler and Mussolini and openly sympathised with the Italian fascists and German national socialists could put into Putin’s head. Ilyin characterised Nazism as a way to prevent the Bolshevisation of Germany and a way out of the “democratic impasse without violating the constitution”. He called the White Guards “my white brothers, fascists”. And he dubbed Ukraine the most threatening part of Russia in terms of secession and conquest. In his writings, Ukrainians are called Little Russians. He also used the term “Ukrainian separatism.” It is not surprising that Putin and his entourage have been quoting Ilyin for a decade and a half (without mentioning fascism, of course).
So what is the likelihood of a nuclear war when the ideas of the anti-Western monarchist of the first half of the twentieth century resonate amazingly and are even being implemented in Putin’s twenty-first century Russia? To what end can Putin go, following “Christian fascism”?
Author: Anastasia Fedor
