The dollar by the end of 2026: should we expect a jump in the exchange rate? An economist gives his forecast.
25 February 14:36
Despite the war, the occupation of 20% of the territory, and a direct blow to more than half of the economy, the hryvnia remains relatively stable.
Should we expect sharp currency fluctuations in 2026, and in which currency should Ukrainians keep their savings? Andriy Novak, head of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, spoke about this in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
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According to the economist, currency forecasts today directly depend on the situation at the front, the scale of destruction, and military spending. Ukraine has lost 20% of its territory, but the economic blow is much greater — approximately 55% of its economic potential, taking into account industry, the agricultural sector, and the blockade of maritime exports.
“But we see that since the full-scale invasion in 2022, we have had a relatively stable hryvnia exchange rate, considering the conditions of war,” he stressed.
Novak emphasizes that the forecast exchange rate set in the state budget, which is based on calculations by the National Bank, can be used as a benchmark. Ukraine currently has a “managed floating exchange rate” regime: the regulator only intervenes in the event of excessive fluctuations.
“The National Bank seems to be distancing itself from exchange rate policy, but if there are excessive fluctuations in the currency market, if it notices them, then it will dampen them so that there is no excessive amplitude of fluctuation.
This means that, given the record gold and foreign exchange reserves at the disposal of the National Bank of Ukraine, we can expect a relatively stable hryvnia exchange rate,” he says.
The economist adds that even if there are difficult developments on the front lines, the hryvnia should remain relatively stable until the end of the year.
He also advises Ukrainians to diversify their savings.
“And gradually, in equal proportions, put them aside in different currencies. Just not under your pillow. Only in commercial banks, because the interest will at least compensate for inflation, and you will earn at least a little,” he added.
Thus, Novak does not predict any sharp currency shocks. The key factors for stability are record gold and foreign exchange reserves, support from partners, and the National Bank’s controlled policy. He advises citizens not to panic and to distribute their savings between the hryvnia, the dollar, and the euro.
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