The Energy Ceasefire That Never Was: A Predictable Delaying Tactic Ahead of New Missile Strikes
3 February 19:29
РОЗБІР ВІД 
The “energy truce” has effectively ended—Russia is once again attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. As a result of the shelling, consumers in several regions are without power, and emergency repair work is underway.
Kyiv and the Kyiv region are experiencing a power shortage. A return to hourly rolling blackouts in the capital is possible once the power grid stabilizes.
Due to severe weather conditions, more than 160 settlements in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions are currently without power, according to Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Energy Artem Nekrasov. He said that regional power company specialists are working around the clock to repair damaged power lines.
Shelling of Ukraine
On the night of February 3, Russian troops attacked eight regions of Ukraine, focusing their strikes primarily on energy infrastructure facilities. This was reported by First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal.
According to him, the enemy used various types of weapons—ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as attack drones. The shelling targeted, in particular, residential buildings and combined heat and power plants in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, which were operating exclusively to provide heat to the districts.
Shmyhal emphasized that as a result of the attacks, hundreds of thousands of families were left without heat in the midst of severe cold weather.
Following the Russian Federation’s massive nighttime attack on the capital’s energy facilities, the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts of Kyiv were largely left without heat. In these districts on the left bank of the Dnipro River, emergency power outages have been partially implemented.
It is also reported that as a result of the shelling in Kyiv, high-rise buildings were damaged, a fire broke out in a kindergarten, and there are casualties.
Ceasefires are possible only if the rules of war are observed
The Russian Federation systematically uses so-called “ceasefires” solely to prepare new attacks and does not adhere to any agreements. This was stated in a comment to [K"Komersant Ukrainian" by Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army.
According to Bratchuk, any pauses in hostilities are possible only when the parties adhere to at least the basic rules of warfare.
“If the other side adheres to at least some basic rules of warfare—does not openly target civilians, does not attack critical infrastructure—then it is possible and necessary to establish certain ceasefires, particularly energy-related ones,” he noted.
At the same time, the speaker emphasized that these rules do not apply to the Russian Federation. Serhiy Bratchuk recalled that the so-called “energy ceasefire,” previously announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, was violated by Russia almost immediately.
“Trump said that Putin promised not to shell Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a week. But there was already a ‘smell’ of planes in the air—they were taking off for combat missions. Russia lied and always lies,” Bratchuk emphasized.
According to him, Moscow traditionally uses such pauses to build up its forces and prepare new attacks.
The UDA spokesperson noted that an intensification of Russian shelling often coincides with international diplomatic meetings.
“We understand that another round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi is coming up. Before the previous meeting, Russia very hastily began shelling the Ukrainian capital—missiles of various types were flying, and they used everything they had,” he recalled.
Ukraine has adhered to the agreements
Bratchuk emphasized that Ukraine, even despite the verbal nature of the agreements, demonstrated a willingness to make peace.
“For several nights, Ukraine adhered to these agreements. Our drones did not fly anywhere, and no legitimate military targets on Russian territory were struck. Ukraine has once again shown—we want peace,” he noted.
According to the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, Russia can only be forced to comply with any agreements through force and tough sanctions.
“Russia understands only force. When Russia feels pain, it realizes it. When sanctions against the shadow fleet and the tanker fleet take effect—when they are actually enforced—then Moscow will begin to understand something,” Bratchuk emphasized.
He also added that resuming strikes on legitimate Russian military targets could quickly bring Russia back to reality.
In conclusion, Serhiy Bratchuk noted that the main question was not whether Russia would violate the agreements, but when it would happen.
“For me, the question was only one thing—how quickly Russia would violate what was announced not by it, but initially by President Trump. In this situation, you know, pass all this on to Trump,” he concluded.
Thus, statements about possible ceasefires, particularly regarding energy, in the case of the Russian Federation remain purely declarative and have no practical substance. As the experience of full-scale war shows, Moscow not only fails to adhere to any verbal or written agreements but also systematically uses the very fact of announcing pauses as an element of military and political manipulation. For the Kremlin, a ceasefire is not a tool for de-escalation, but a convenient moment to regroup forces, prepare new strikes, and increase pressure on both Ukraine and its international partners.
The events surrounding the so-called “energy ceasefire” demonstrate once again that Russia does not recognize any rules of war and deliberately attacks the civilian population and critical infrastructure while hiding behind diplomatic rhetoric. Intensifying shelling on the eve of international negotiations or important meetings is a standard tactic of the Kremlin, aimed at intimidation, a show of force, and undermining any mediation efforts by the West.
At the same time, Ukraine, even in the absence of formalized and legally binding agreements, has repeatedly demonstrated its readiness for de-escalation and adherence to declared ceasefires. This stance underscores a fundamental difference in the parties’ approaches: Kyiv views a ceasefire as a step toward peace, while Moscow sees it as a tool of war. This creates an obvious imbalance, in which Ukraine’s unilateral restraint does not lead to a reduction in violence but, on the contrary, encourages Russia to launch new attacks.
