Approaching World War II levels: U.S. national debt exceeds GDP
1 May 16:44
The U.S. national debt has exceeded 100% of GDP and is approaching the record set after World War II. This is reported by the Wall Street Journal, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
“U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold and on track to break the record set after World War II,” the publication states.
As of March 31, 2026, the country’s national debt stood at $31.27 trillion, while GDP for 2025 was $31.22 trillion.
“This means the ratio stands at 100.2%, compared to 99.5% at the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30. This figure is likely to rise in the near future, as the federal government has a historically large annual deficit of nearly 6% of GDP, which increases the debt,”
According to the Wall Street Journal. This year’s federal budget deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion—nearly the same as in 2025. At the same time, the final figure will depend on spending on the war with Iran, the return of customs duties, and the state of the economy.
The publication notes that this milestone in itself is not particularly significant, and there is no specific threshold at which debt transitions from problematic to catastrophic.
“At the same time, the three-digit figure is a symbol of the financial pressure on the U.S. that has been building for decades,” the publication writes.
As the debt grows, the government also becomes more sensitive to interest rates: currently, one in every seven dollars of federal spending goes toward interest payments, but a 0.1% increase in the interest rate would cost the U.S. $379 billion over 10 years.
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Have there been such cases in the U.S. before?
The last time the national debt exceeded 100% of GDP was in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, however, this was linked to a recession and a decline in GDP.
Shortly thereafter, the ratio declined due to the end of the stimulus program, the resumption of economic growth, and an increase in nominal GDP driven by high inflation.
“Since 1946, the U.S. has not ended a fiscal year with debt exceeding 100% of GDP—that may change now. Unlike in 2020–2021, the factors driving the deficit are structural rather than temporary, and interest rates are higher than they were then.”
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecasts that this figure will reach 100.6% for this fiscal year and will exceed the post-World War II record by 2030.
Recall: Earlier, the Pentagon reported that the U.S. war against Iran has already cost $25 billion—this was the first official estimate of the military cost of this conflict.
The Pentagon also confirmed the allocation of $400 million to Ukraine, which had already been approved by the U.S. Congress in the 2026 federal budget but had not been used.
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