The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the Price Spike: Who Benefited from the Oil Shortage
14 April 18:12
Against the backdrop of a sharp decline in global oil supply in March and a historic surge in prices, Russia’s revenues from energy exports nearly doubled to $19 billion. This is according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as reported by "Komersant Ukrainian".
What happened in the market
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil reserves decreased by 85 million barrels, and daily supply fell by 10.1 million barrels (to 97 million). This marked the largest monthly supply shock in history
Main reasons:
- attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East
- a sharp restriction on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz as a bottleneck
Supplies via the key energy route fell sharply:
- February: over 20 million barrels per day
- early April: only about 3.8 million barrels per day
This became one of the main drivers of price increases.
How this affected Russia
Against the backdrop of a global shortage:
- Russia’s revenues rose from $9.75 billion to $19 billion per month
- crude oil exports: 270,000 barrels per day (up to 4.6 million)
- production: rose to 8.96 million barrels per day
In effect, Russia took advantage of the situation: lower market volumes → higher prices → higher revenues.
But not without limitations
The IEA warns: further growth in Russian production is in question due to damage to energy infrastructure, port issues, and logistical risks.
Refining crisis
The problems have affected more than just production:
- Refineries in the Middle East and Asia have cut refining by 6 million barrels per day
- global refining capacity could decline by 1 million barrels per day in 2026
The reason is a shortage of feedstock.
Demand vs. Prices
Despite rising prices, weak demand (particularly in Asia) and high energy costs could hold back further market growth.
What’s next
The IEA assesses the situation as unstable:
In the event of a protracted conflict, the world could face new supply disruptions and economic consequences.
The agency has already:
- decided on a record release of reserves
- is considering further interventions
