The U.S. has released new crop yield figures that may cause concern among Ukrainian farmers
14 August 12:57
U.S. analysts have sharply revised upward their estimates for Ukraine’s wheat and corn harvests, but at the same time have lowered their export forecasts. As a result, end-of-season stocks of these two major crops could more than double. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian", citing a report from the U.S. agency.
In the USDA’s official report, the combined production estimate for wheat and corn in Ukraine was raised by 3.2 million metric tons. At the same time, the export forecast was lowered by 2 million metric tons.
Compared to the July estimates, the U.S. agency has improved its harvest expectations for both major grain crops.
| Figure | July Forecast | August forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat production | 24 million metric tons | 25.4 million metric tons | 1.4 million metric tons |
| Wheat exports | 14.5 million metric tons | 13.5 million metric tons | −1 million metric tons |
| Wheat stocks | 2.53 million metric tons | 4.8 million metric tons | 2.27 million metric tons |
| Corn production | 30 million metric tons | 31.8 million metric tons | 1.8 million metric tons |
| Corn exports | 23 million metric tons | 22 million metric tons | −1 million metric tons |
| Corn stocks | 2.06 million metric tons | 4.86 million metric tons | 2.8 million metric tons |
Thus, the USDA estimates total wheat and corn production for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 57.2 million metric tons.
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Ukraine is projected to be able to export about 35.5 million metric tons of these crops. Meanwhile, their ending stocks could rise to 9.66 million metric tons, up from 4.59 million metric tons in the previous forecast.
These figures are included in the August WASDE report.
Why the harvest is increasing
The revision of the Ukrainian wheat estimate was expected due to better actual harvest results and higher yields than previously anticipated.
As analysts from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club explained, the new figures reflect the actual progress of the harvest campaign. That is why the wheat production forecast was raised by 1.4 million metric tons at once.
Corn production forecasts have also been revised upward—by 1.8 million metric tons. However, the final result will depend on weather conditions until the end of the harvest, the condition of the crops, and farmers’ ability to harvest and dry the crop in a timely manner.
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Why the USDA Lowered Its Export Forecast
A rise in crop yields would normally be accompanied by an increase in exports. However, the USDA’s August forecast showed the opposite: wheat and corn export projections were each reduced by 1 million metric tons.
UCAAB analysts suggest that the U.S. agency is taking into account:
- Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports;
- damage to grain and energy infrastructure;
- security risks to shipping;
- limited capacity of the Danube route;
- the high cost of overland transport;
- possible restrictions on trade with certain EU countries;
- a slowdown in shipments during the new season.
Russian attacks on Black Sea and Danube ports have already led to a sharp slowdown in Ukrainian agricultural exports. According to Reuters, some farms have faced full storage facilities and a shortage of buyers due to problems with grain shipments.
What do nearly 10 million metric tons of stocks mean?
Ending stocks do not refer to the volume of grain already in storage. Rather, they represent the projected amount of wheat and corn that may remain in Ukraine at the end of the 2026/2027 marketing year after domestic consumption and exports.
A sharp increase in this figure could mean an additional burden on grain elevators and warehouses. If export rates do not recover, farmers will have to store their produce longer, pay for drying, and seek alternative sales channels.
The accumulation of stocks may also:
- increase pressure on domestic purchase prices;
- increase farmers’ storage costs;
- reduce working capital ahead of the next planting season;
- reduce farmers’ ability to repay loans;
- lead to a shortage of available elevator capacity;
- increase dependence on rail and Danube routes.
Small and medium-sized farms are the most vulnerable, as they do not have their own storage facilities and are forced to sell their harvest immediately after harvesting.
As reported by
What’s happening on the global market
The USDA estimates global wheat production for the 2026/2027 marketing year at 819.3 million metric tons. The forecast for global exports has been reduced to 212.71 million metric tons, while ending stocks have been raised to 273.25 million metric tons.
The situation is different for corn. Global production is projected at nearly 1.299 billion metric tons, and exports at 210.48 million metric tons. Meanwhile, ending stocks have been reduced to 274.66 million metric tons.
This indicates that demand for corn remains strong. However, for Ukraine, the main issue is not the availability of buyers on the global market, but the ability to physically and economically deliver the grain to them.
Thus, the improved harvest forecast is a positive sign for food security, but without stable port operations, the additional millions of metric tons could turn into a problem for Ukrainian farmers in terms of storage, financing, and sales.
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