The World Bank has released its price forecast for 2026: how much will energy prices and gold rise?
28 April 18:26
Energy prices are set to rise by 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since 2022.
This is stated in the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook report, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Overall, commodity prices are projected to rise by 16% in 2026 due to the rapid increase in energy and fertilizer prices, as well as record-high prices for a number of key metals.
“Brent crude oil prices in mid-April remained more than 50% higher than at the start of the year. The average price of Brent crude is projected to be $86 per barrel in 2026, a sharp increase from $69 per barrel in 2025,” the report states.
These forecasts are based on the assumption that the most severe disruptions will end in May, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to pre-war levels by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, in 2022, the average price was $100–101 per barrel for Brent and $91–95 per barrel for WTI.
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What will gold and fertilizer prices be like?
“Fertilizer prices are also projected to rise by 31% in 2026 due to a 60% surge in urea prices. Fertilizer availability will drop to its lowest level since 2022, leading to reduced farm incomes and threatening future crop yields,” the study states.
If the conflict drags on, these pressures on food security and availability could result in up to 45 million more people facing acute food insecurity this year.
“Precious metals continue to break records in terms of price and volatility, and average prices are projected to rise by 42% in 2026 as geopolitical uncertainty fuels demand for safe-haven assets,” the study states.
According to baseline forecasts, inflation in developing countries will average 5.1% in 2026. In 2025, this figure stood at 4.7%.
Economic growth will also slow in developing countries and those directly affected by the war in the Middle East.
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