Apple prices in Ukraine may drop this season: experts’ forecast
7 August 19:12
A survey of apple market participants conducted by EastFruit regarding the forecast for wholesale prices of fresh apples in Ukraine for January–May 2027 indicates that expectations are largely cautious, reports "Komersant Ukrainian", citing EastFruit.
Among respondents who provided a specific forecast, 43% expect prices to fall, 29% expect them to rise, and another 29% believe there will be no significant changes. The most common scenario is a decline of 11–20%, chosen by 25% of participants. Another 14% forecast a decline of more than 21%.
“This season, to the surprise of Ukrainian producers, apple prices began to decline in the second half of the season and continued to fall from January through June, which is highly unusual. In fact, during the harvest, apples were sold for at least 25% more than after long-term storage,” explains Andriy Yarmak, an economist with the FAO’s Investment Department.
“In 2026, according to preliminary estimates, the apple harvest in Ukraine will increase significantly. “In addition, there are many other factors that will put downward pressure on prices, such as the sharp increase in the cost of sea exports and rising apple harvests in Moldova and Turkey,” explains Andriy Yarmak.
At the same time, EastFruit experts predict that Central Asia and the Caucasus may absorb part of the excess supply. A significant decline in the apple harvest is expected in Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.
However, if producers begin aggressively selling off apples during this year’s harvest, it is possible that prices in the second half of the season (January–June 2027) will not be lower than during the same period this year.
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