Russia’s spending on the war with Ukraine has reached a new high
13 June 12:09
Russia’s military spending in January–March 2026 reached a new record high of 5.9 trillion rubles. This is 30% more than in the first quarter of 2025, when they amounted to 4.5 trillion rubles, according to calculations by German economist Janis Klug. His calculations were published on the Substack platform. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to DW.
The growth in the Kremlin’s military spending is mainly due to a 43% increase in classified expenditures compared to the first quarter of 2025—from 3.4 trillion to 4.9 trillion rubles. And according to the law on the federal budget for 2026, 85% of such expenditures are allocated to military needs. In this context, total federal spending in the first quarter amounted to 12.8 trillion rubles, meaning that classified expenditures accounted for 38.2%.
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As a result, military spending in the first three months of 2026 amounted to 2.5% of Russia’s projected annual GDP, as well as 12% of the estimated nominal GDP for January–March.
“This figure will likely change by the end of the year, as spending typically declines in the second and third quarters, but the first-quarter result is still impressive in its magnitude. If we take the first-quarter figures as an indicator of the situation for the remainder of the year, military spending could reach 9–10% of GDP in 2026,” notes Kluge.
Calculation: In January–March, two-thirds of Russia’s budget revenue was allocated to military spending
According to Kluge’s estimates, in the first quarter, Russia’s military spending accounted for 46% of total budget expenditures. Moreover, this amount is comparable to two-thirds of the country’s federal budget revenue for the same period. As the economist notes, due to new sanctions against the oil sector, the strengthening of the ruble, and the economic slowdown, tax revenues in the first quarter totaled only 8.3 trillion rubles. And 5.9 trillion rubles in military spending account for over 71% of that amount.
Kluge: The rise in military spending in 2026 may also be a result of manipulation by the Ministry of Finance
However, Kluge suggests that the record military spending may not be linked to an increase in actual expenditures, but rather to the fact that the country’s Ministry of Finance shifted part of the military spending from 2025 to 2026 in 2025 to avoid exceeding the deficit planned for the previous year. According to the economist, this may be indicated, for example, by the fact that the federal budget deficit for 2025 matched the planned figure. This is despite the fact that in September–November, expenditures exceeded the planned schedule, while in December they “turned out to be unexpectedly low.” Moreover, at the end of 2025, the volume of classified expenditure items “was surprisingly small.”
“If part of the increase in military spending in the first quarter of 2026 was indeed caused by accounting manipulations by the Ministry of Finance, this means that the actual rate of spending in 2026 is not as high as one might assume based on first-quarter data,” Kluge notes.
The economist also suggested that the increase in spending specifically in the first quarter could have been linked to advance payments under arms procurement contracts, which “will subsequently lead to a reduction in military spending for the remainder of 2026.”
“When detailed budget data for the second quarter is published in August or September, it should become clearer which of these explanations is correct,” the economist concluded.
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