Due to its inability to produce more weapons: Russia is expected to launch a new wave of mobilization
21 June 21:15
The Kremlin will have to announce a mass mobilization to continue the war against Ukraine, as the Russian defense industry is operating at full capacity and is unable to increase arms production, the Financial Times reports, citing three Western intelligence officials, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the sources, Russia’s military production is stagnating, with the exception of unmanned systems and long-range weapons, which are receiving the bulk of resources. At the same time, record-low unemployment is making it difficult to attract qualified specialists to high-tech development projects.
“Without investment, it is impossible to ramp up arms production, and that will take years,” one of the sources noted.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is rapidly developing medium- and long-range unmanned systems, which have already diminished the significance of Russia’s numerical superiority in troops and are actively hindering the enemy’s advance on the front lines. Against this backdrop, an FT source involved in informal contacts regarding Ukraine called increasing the level of mobilization “the only way out” for the Kremlin.
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According to him, the Russian army is on the back foot, either struggling to come up with belated responses to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ innovative tactics or “failing to find them at all.”
Despite this, dictator Vladimir Putin remains confident that Russia is capable of achieving its stated goal, and that “victory” over Ukraine is only a matter of time, the publication’s sources noted. According to their information, he spends a significant portion of his time micromanaging combat operations and regularly—sometimes twice a day—receives reports from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
According to estimates by analysts at the Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group, from February to May, Russian troops captured 164 km² of Ukrainian territory, compared to 1,151 km² during the same period last year. Ukrainian Armed Forces drones are striking logistics facilities, airfields, military convoys, and oil refineries, gradually eroding Putin’s army’s resource advantage.
“Russia’s problem is that its current tactics do not provide the tools for major successes, and it is unable to find new tools,” notes Black Bird co-founder Emil Kastehelmi.
“Russia will look for various ways to influence the situation in Ukraine, but, with the exception of nuclear weapons, I don’t think it will be able to significantly alter the course of hostilities in the coming months unless it announces another mobilization,” says Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish analytical group Rochan Consulting.
Since December 2025, the rate at which the Russian military is replenishing its ranks has remained below the rate of losses on the front lines, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). In addition, the budget deficit is growing, which is attracting contract soldiers with generous bonuses. European officials have not ruled out the possibility that the Kremlin could announce a new mobilization after the September State Duma elections if high casualties on the front lines persist.
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