Will the power be cut off in winter: experts make a forecast
14 June 2024 14:08
Ukrainians can receive up to five to six hours of light a day in winter, but it will depend on the circumstances. This was announced by Yasno CEO Serhiy Kovalenko on Business Breakfast, reports [Kommersant].
He noted that the peak electricity consumption in winter is even higher than in summer and predicted a possible generation deficit of 30-35%.
As for the winter forecasts, Kovalenko noted that everything will depend on the increased physical capacity to import electricity and the repaired nuclear units.
“To answer the question: six to five hours of light for consumers per day is quite realistic, but I think it can be better. It depends on how much we restore. So, as for the winter forecast, I think we need to prepare based on the fact that we will have 5-6 hours of power a day. But at the end of August, we will need to update the forecast,” explained Sergiy Kovalenko.
According to Yasno’s CEO, the electricity shortage is currently between 15 and 25%. The decision to cut off power will depend on the temperature, at 10 degrees on average it will be positive, but at -15 degrees and below it will be negative, as low temperatures lead to an increase in energy consumption for heating. In summer, electricity consumption also increases by 30%.
What is the current situation with the energy sector in Ukraine?
As of 14 June, the restrictions are in place across Ukraine from 18:00 to 22:00. The main reason for the restrictions is the impact of six enemy missile attacks on Ukrainian power plants. Due to significant damage, they cannot produce as much electricity as before the attacks. Imports and emergency assistance from European countries are being sought to overcome the deficit in the power system. However, due to the scale of the damage, these measures are not enough to maintain the balance in the grid.
As of this morning, 3 settlements in Sumy region are without power due to weather conditions. New power cuts were reported in Dnipropetrovska, Donetska and Kharkivska oblasts due to the fighting.
During the day, Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova supplied electricity. The total volume is 31,904 MWh, with a maximum capacity of up to 1,689 MW in some hours.
Power supply in Ukraine in winter: what experts predict
According to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC Ukrenergo, Ukrainians should prepare for power outages in winter at the household level.
“This winter may be difficult, because consumption naturally increases in winter. And even with the plans to restore generation that exist today, it is likely that we will not be able to completely eliminate the possibility of planned outages,” Kudrytskyi said.
In his turn, Andriy Zakrevskyi, Deputy Director of the Association of Energy and Natural Resources of Ukraine, also voiced his view of the situation.
He said that the central and western regions of Ukraine could go through the season without power cuts, as they will receive assistance from the western border at affordable prices. However, the frontline regions, where Russia may attack the network infrastructure, may face blackouts lasting several days.
Zakrevsky is confident that a complete blackout will not happen in the country, as it will be difficult and expensive for Russians to attack the power grid. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defence is expected to increase by autumn 2024. However, regions such as Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, and Odesa, which are located on the border with Russia, will continue to face major problems.
Zakrevsky also notes that some regions may suffer from a lack of heat in winter, particularly Kharkiv and Sumy, and this is a major problem alongside the lack of electricity.
