Sunflower Seed Shortage: How Competition for Raw Materials Is Driving Up Prices
16 June 11:56
ANALYSIS FROM 
On the Ukrainian sunflower seed market, demand currently exceeds supply, which not only drives up raw material prices but also leads to competition for the crop among exporters and processors. Similar competition is observed in the soybean and rapeseed markets. What else distinguishes these processes—Komersant investigated
Currently, 43% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports consist of raw materials, while 57% are processed products. And in recent years, this share has grown by 10%. These figures were shared in early June at the international Grain Ukraine conference by Oleksiy Sobolev, Ukraine’s Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture. He defined his ministry’s key current task as follows:
“To make the transition from a raw material model to a model of deep processing and certified exports not just a slogan, but a commitment backed by law, the budget, and infrastructure.”
Farmers already had the opportunity to experience what this commitment means in practice last year following the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed. As early as September 2025, processors were setting historic records for production growth, while farmers and exporters were counting their losses. The impact of this decision will be felt in the current season as well. But it is not the only factor shaping trends in the oilseed market. Publication
Sunflower seeds are in short supply
Shortages, intensifying competition for raw materials, and rising prices are what currently characterize the Ukrainian sunflower market. Alexander Buyukli explains the source of the shortage.
“The sunflower harvest we gathered last year was insufficient: only 10.5 million tons compared to 13–15 million tons in previous years. The processing industry already has excess capacity. And while capacity utilization was 80–85% in a bumper year, this figure has dropped to 70% in the current season, meaning 30% of capacity was idle. “Consequently, due to the poor harvest, there is now fierce competition for raw materials, which has significantly driven up sunflower prices,” the expert notes.
According to him, supply issues will continue to grow until September, when the new harvest arrives, and it is precisely because of this factor that sunflower prices will remain quite high.
Rapeseed will help
The limited supply of sunflower seeds has forced processing plants to turn their attention to rapeseed as an alternative raw material. In other words, as Oleksandr Buyukli notes, rapeseed can partially replace sunflower seeds and help keep processors busy. Moreover, he says that while the new sunflower crop won’t be available until at least September, rapeseed is expected to be available as early as July. But will exporters be able to maintain their positions amid such heightened interest in this crop from processors? Oleksandr Buyukli’s perspective:
“Traders will lose out to processors due to export duties. Although there should be enough work for everyone in the first months of the season. Based on the results of the previous harvest, plants processed over 1 million tons, which is a significant achievement for the industry. In the 2026/27 season, processing will also remain at high levels, reaching 1.2–1.5 million tons. Given that the harvest could be 3.2–3.5 million tons, exporters will get about 2 million tons.”
At the same time, according to Oleksandr Buyukli, rapeseed is also becoming more expensive due to high oil prices, and in the new season, there is a high probability of reaching $620–640/t CIF port. As the expert explained, a significant portion of rapeseed oil is used to produce biodiesel, which is an alternative to petroleum diesel. Accordingly, both global demand for rapeseed and its price are rising.
Ukrainian soybeans are trending
High demand, competition among exporters and processors, and rising purchase prices are what currently characterize the soybean market. These trends are fueled by high interest in this crop on international markets. Oleksandr Buyukli continues.
“The global soybean market has shown an upward trend, and the Ukrainian market has followed suit. However, export duties have led to a significant shift between exports and processing. Processing plants gained a 10% price advantage and fully leveraged it to their benefit, taking a significant portion of raw materials from traders. Processors are achieving good margins, so they are actively purchasing raw materials, while exporters are forced to shut down their operations,” the expert notes.
Overall, according to Oleksandr Buyukli, executive director of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative, the world has entered a difficult period because some key exporting countries are experiencing losses in their winter crop harvests, and this factor will support prices and drive an upward trend. As for Ukraine, the expert believes the country will see a good harvest—at least, the risks of a decline are minimal—and this good harvest, combined with high prices, will allow the Ukrainian agricultural sector to turn a profit.
