The dollar at 51.5 and the minimum wage over 11,000: the government has presented its Budget Declaration for 2027–2029
16 June 13:47
The government has presented its Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, which outlines two scenarios depending on the course of the war. The projections include the dollar exchange rate, minimum wage increases, and key macroeconomic indicators.
This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" citing the Telegram channel of Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, a member of parliament from the “Servant of the People” party.
“In the presence of the prime minister and the entire government, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko is currently presenting the budget declaration for the next three years—2027–2029—to the coalition council. The meeting is taking place at the initiative of Yulia Svyrydenko,” Vasilevska-Smaglyuk wrote.
Two Scenarios
The budget declaration envisages two scenarios: the end of the war and the continuation of the war.
In the baseline scenario, which assumes the war will end, inflation in 2027 will be 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year is expected to be 48.3 UAH.
Government priorities
“The Ministry of Finance has identified the key priorities of the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029. The main focus is on maintaining social support for citizens, raising social standards, and preparing for new challenges in the country’s recovery process,” the MP wrote.
In particular, the plan is to maintain the expenditures provided for in the 2026 budget, including funding for screening programs, school meals, teacher salaries, and demographic development initiatives.
The government also plans to implement new public policies depending on developments in the security and economic situation.
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Minimum Wage Increase
The government forecasts an increase in the minimum wage:
- in 2027—by 10.4%;
- in 2028 – by 8.7%;
- in 2029—by 7.1%. As of 2026, the minimum wage in Ukraine is 8,647 hryvnias.
The subsistence minimum is projected to increase:
- in 2027—by 10.9%;
- in 2028 – by 8.9%;
- in 2029 – by 7.1%.
The subsistence minimum for able-bodied individuals in Ukraine as of 2026 is 3,328 hryvnias.
“Over the next three years, the minimum wage is projected to increase by nearly 29%. If we calculate 29% of 8,647 UAH (the minimum wage amount in 2026), the minimum wage after such an increase will be approximately 11,155 hryvnias,” the MP wrote.
According to Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, the government is also discussingwage reform.
During a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the issue of revising salaries was raised. A full reform will require about 320 billion UAH, but the first decisions may be adopted in the near future.
Dollar exchange rate
According to Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, even in an optimistic scenario, the government is planning for a gradual weakening of the hryvnia. The average annual dollar exchange rate will rise from 44.4 UAH in 2026 to 50.7 UAH in 2029.
By the end of 2029, the dollar is projected by the government to be worth 51.5 UAH.
Budget Expenditures
According to Vasilevska-Smaglyuk, Ukraine plans to increase borrowing next year.
The government expects public debt to reach 106.1% of GDP by the end of 2026. In 2027, it is projected to reach 113%.
Ukraine’s need for international financing in 2027 is 2 trillion 134.5 billion UAH. This is expected to come from international aid from the G7, the EU, the World Bank, the UK, and the IMF, including a grant from the EU and a loan from the UK, which will be repaid using frozen Russian assets. – writes
. If active hostilities end this year, the government forecasts a gradual reduction in the budget deficit:
- 18.5% of GDP in 2026;
- 17.7% of GDP in 2027;
- 11.1% of GDP in 2028;
- 5.5% of GDP in 2029.
According to government estimates, budget expenditures will peak in 2027, after which they will begin to decline:
- 4.77 trillion UAH in 2026;
- 5.05 trillion UAH in 2027;
- 4.87 trillion UAH in 2028;
- 4.55 trillion UAH in 2029.
Payments to military personnel
According to the MP, Svyrydenko stated that the plan is to extend the 10,000-hryvnia bonus for support staff in the military into next year.
If peace is achieved in 2026, the government expects economic growth to accelerate.
Real GDP is projected to grow:
- by 2.6% in 2026;
- in 2027—by 4.5%;
- in 2028—by 5.3%;
- in 2029—by 6.7%.
Nominal GDP is expected to grow from 10.1 trillion UAH in 2026 to nearly 15 trillion UAH in 2029. Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk reported these findings following the meeting.
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