“Out?”: why there is talk of Denys Shmyhal’s resignation again and who did not like him
3 July 2024 18:21
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
Once again, the media have picked up information about the possible resignation of Denys Shmyhal. Today, Ukrayinska Pravda reported that sources in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team say he is “tired of Shmyhal” and is likely to fire him.
The current prime minister is breaking records for the longest tenure in the government, having served for five years, and there have been no statements from senior officials about his dismissal. The topic of Cabinet rotation is now a pressing issue, as the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, recently stated, noting that personnel issues regarding ministers will once again be on the agenda in the Verkhovna Rada. However, what changes to expect in the Cabinet of Ministers and what will happen to the Prime Minister himself is an open question.
[Kommersant] has gathered the opinions of experts and MPs to outline the future of the executive branch in Ukraine and who can become an effective alternative to the current Prime Minister.
Why the topic of the prime minister’s resignation is being discussed again
The last time the topic of the prime minister’s resignation was discussed on the sidelines of parliament was in early March this year.
At the time, the possible candidates for the post of the new head of government were the First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko or the current Ukrainian ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova.
According to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, the topic of the possible resignation of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has begun to gain momentum again, as President Zelenskyy is now focused on domestic political issues.
“The main summits in June have already taken place, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was focused on foreign policy issues, and now he will have about 10 days to address domestic political issues. First of all, personnel issues. Perhaps this week or in mid-July, there will be personnel decisions on the Government that are overdue: the question of the Government’s structure. And the topic of changing the Prime Minister is being discussed in the context of changing this structure,” Volodymyr Fesenko said.
When Denys Shmyhal may leave his post
At the same time, Volodymyr Fesenko believes that the prime minister will not lose his seat, at least in the near future.
“Theoretically, anything can happen. Shmyhal is a record holder – no prime minister has ever been in office for 4 years in a row. The issue of his replacement will inevitably be constantly discussed. So far, I do not see any critical need for his dismissal,” the political analyst said.
“Theoretically, there are about 20-30 per cent of his resignation, no more,” Fesenko said.
At the same time, according to political scientist and head of the Centre for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko, such circumstances can arise at any time.
“As long as there are no new scandals around Shmyhal, there is no political expediency to remove him. But it may appear, for example, if some new journalistic investigation is released,” the political scientist believes and emphasises that even in the event of scandalous news or journalistic investigations in which Mr Shmyhal may appear, he will have the strength to stop the situation.
“Given that the energy crisis and the effectiveness of the management of funds allocated to us since 2022 for the restoration of the energy sector have been “channeled” to the names of Kubrakov and Nayem, I think it is technologically possible to transfer this to the Government itself. Of course, if there is political will to do so. I think Shmyhal has certain hardware capabilities to repel such attacks. It is not for nothing that he has been in office for a record time.”
Ihor Chalenko predicts that Shmyhal will remain in his post at least until the autumn of this year.
“Without a clear command from President Zelensky to write a letter of resignation right now, Shmyhal will continue to be prime minister until the autumn. Now, during the war, it is difficult to make gradations for political seasons, but there have been insider talks about replacing Shmyhal. They say he should stay in his seat until the autumn,” Chalenko said.
In an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrayinsky, MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said that the issue of replacing the prime minister this summer is being discussed under the “dome”.
“There are such rumours,” he said.
Who can take the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine
According to Ihor Chalenko, there are four candidates who could replace Shmyhal. At the same time, their number is constantly shrinking. Among the main contenders named by the media earlier are:
- yulia Svyrydenko, First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine and Minister of Economy of Ukraine;
- head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak;
- oleksiy Chernyshev, the head of Naftogaz, the national energy company;
- ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Oksana Markarova.
“It is now clear that the number of conditional candidates for his place is generally decreasing, and Kubrakov certainly cannot claim the prime ministerial post. As for Minister Svyrydenko, it should be noted that, for example, she speaks quite actively during the hour of questions to the Government in the Verkhovna Rada. And it was she who represented Ukraine at international events, such as the Recovery Conference in Germany. There may be quite certain desires for her candidacy from the OP,” said the political scientist and named another name of a possible candidate for the post of head of government.
“We have heard that Mr Yermak may be one of the candidates for the prime ministerial post, as the President’s right-hand man.
I would not rule out Chernyshev, the head of Naftogaz, as another candidate. Despite the fact that he is being “wooed” to the Ministry of Infrastructure, I think he has prime ministerial ambitions.
Also, the US is once again hinting at the need to appoint Oksana Markarova as Prime Minister,” said Chalenko.
The names of Svyrydenko and Chernyshev are also confirmed by Ukrayinska Pravda’s sources. At the same time, they say that the OP has doubts about Chernyshev’s candidacy because of his connection with NABU Director Semen Kryvonos.
What the “letter of the law” says
According to Oleksandr Kachura, MP from the Servant of the People party, the issue of Denys Shmyhal’s resignation was not discussed in the faction. Moreover, he stressed that during martial law, the Prime Minister can only be dismissed at his own request.
“The issue of dismissal of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal was not discussed in the faction. Especially now, under martial law, it is possible only upon his personal request,” he said.
The MP added that the resignation of the Prime Minister, in accordance with the law, would also entail the resignation of the entire Government.
“In this case, the entire Government will have to be reappointed. I am not sure that this is now, as they say, ‘on the agenda’,” said Kachura.
Indeed, according to Article 13 of the Law of Ukraine “On the Cabinet of Ministers”, the Cabinet may be dismissed as a result of a no-confidence resolution passed by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, resignation or death of the Prime Minister. Article 15 of the same Law also provides that the entire Cabinet of Ministers must be dismissed after the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself cannot be dismissed for no reason during martial law, according to Article 10 of the Law of Ukraine “On the Legal Regime of MartialLaw”.
“During the period of martial law, the powers of the President of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, courts, prosecutor’s offices, bodies engaged in operational and investigative activities, pre-trial investigation, intelligence agencies and bodies whose units are engaged in counter-intelligence activities cannot be terminated.”
Given the fact that there are currently 5, and in fact 6, vacant seats in the Cabinet of Ministers, the formation of a new Government may take quite a long time, which is “worth its weight in gold” during martial law.
Author – Aliona Kaplina
