The largest U.S. bank has predicted a “Finnish scenario” for Ukraine once the war ends
16 May 17:06
The “Finnish scenario” is emerging as the most likely outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, under which Kyiv would lose some of its territory but retain its sovereignty, its military, and its course toward integration with the West. This forecast is presented in the report “Ukraine Endgame: The Path to an Imperfect Peace” by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the U.S., according to "Komersant Ukrainian", citing Reuters.
In their assessment, the outcome of the war will be decided at the negotiating table, as the situation on the battlefield has reached a stalemate and the front line has not moved for more than two years. As part of a compromise with Russia, JPMorgan believes Ukraine may be forced to agree to neutrality and restrictions on the size and capabilities of its army. Moscow will be able to present the outcome as its own victory without having achieved Ukraine’s complete surrender.
Ukraine is likely to follow a path similar to that of Finland, according to JPMorgan: after the war with the USSR, Finland lost about 10% of its territory but retained its democratic system, market economy, and ties with the West, avoiding direct confrontation with its neighbor. For Kyiv, this would mean gradual integration into the European Union and, possibly, into NATO, although initially without full protection under Article 5 of the alliance’s charter.
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A year ago, JPMorgan analysts considered the “Georgian scenario”—in which the country would gradually return to the Kremlin’s orbit—to be the baseline scenario for Ukraine. The probability of such a development was estimated at 50%. Now the bank has significantly revised its forecast: the probability of the “Finnish scenario” is estimated at 50%, the “Georgian” scenario at 30%, the “Israeli” scenario at 10%, and the “South Korea” and “Belarus” scenarios at 5% each.
JPMorgan notes that the change in the forecast is primarily due to increased European support for Kyiv. Following the near-complete reduction of U.S. military aid in 2025, Europe increased its assistance to Ukraine compared to the average levels of 2022–2024. As a result, the total volume of aid in 2025 remained nearly at the previous level. The European Union has released a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, and the International Monetary Fund has begun disbursing an $8.1 billion loan to cover the short-term budget deficit.
JPMorgan estimates Ukraine’s budget deficit in 2026 at approximately $50 billion, though this does not include all military expenditures. The bank estimates the cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction at nearly $600 billion over the next decade. The report notes that this is nearly three times Ukraine’s current annual GDP ($190 billion).
The bank estimates the probability of a “Georgian scenario” at 30%. It involves a gradual weakening of Western support, protracted instability, and a possible drift of Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit without capitulation. The bank considers the “South Korea” scenario—which involves full-fledged U.S. security guarantees and the deployment of Western troops on Ukrainian territory—unlikely. JPMorgan estimates its probability at just 5%. The bank considers the “Belarus” scenario—also with a 5% probability—to be the worst-case scenario, in which Ukraine effectively becomes a state dependent on Moscow.
The report also notes that Russia is interested in reaching an agreement under the current U.S. administration. JPMorgan believes that Moscow perceives Washington’s current position as more favorable to itself due to the U.S.’s reluctance to discuss Ukraine’s NATO membership and its willingness to push Kyiv toward territorial concessions.
Over the past year, the bank’s analysts note, Russia has captured only about 0.8% of Ukrainian territory at the cost of approximately 35,000 casualties per month. Since the end of 2022, Russian forces have increased the territory under their control by approximately 1.5%. At the same time, analysts estimate Russia’s total losses at approximately 325,000 killed and 875,000 wounded. The report’s authors believe that the outcome of the conflict will now be determined not so much by the situation on the front lines as by a combination of diplomatic, financial, and military factors. At the same time, any settlement will almost certainly lead to a partial easing of sanctions against Russia.
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