Sell or wait: Andriy Novak gives his forecast for the value of land shares after the war
14 May 14:43
FORECAST
Land in Ukraine is gradually becoming not just an asset, but a tool for capital concentration. In the four years since the market opened, the price per hectare has risen from $1,200–1,500 to $2,500–3,000 in relatively safe regions. But the main change isn’t even the sale price.
The market has exploded due to leasing. While in 2021 a land share yielded an average of 1,600 UAH per hectare, in some regions the lease price now reaches 16,000–25,000 UAH. This is especially true in western Ukraine, where land has also become a “security asset.”
In Ukraine, the land market operates under significant restrictions. This was stated by economist Andriy Novak, commenting on the current situation in the land market.
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According to him, after the adoption of the land law in Ukraine, the agricultural land market effectively began to function, albeit with a number of restrictions. At the same time, first the coronavirus pandemic and later the full-scale war seriously impacted the pace of this market’s development.
“The war—first the coronavirus, and then, of course, the full-scale war since 2022—has significantly altered the functioning and dynamics of the land market in Ukraine,” the expert noted.
Currently, the cost of agricultural land varies significantly depending on the region and soil quality. According to the economist’s estimates, prices range “from $300 to $1,500, and very rarely up to $2,000” for such plots.
At the same time, Andriy Novak emphasizes that the current price is not yet fully market-driven. According to him, the land market in Ukraine has only just begun to take shape, so the final value of land has not yet been determined by market mechanisms.
In addition, market activity remains low due to war risks.
“The land market, like other major markets in Ukraine, has, so to speak, come to a standstill during the war. And there is currently no active trading in this land market,” the economist explained.
He also added that the number of transactions involving the sale of agricultural land is currently relatively small. According to the expert, only after the end of hostilities will the market begin to gradually pick up, which will also influence the rise in the value of Ukrainian land.
“The price of Ukrainian land, including agricultural land, will gradually rise,” Novak predicts.
The economist emphasized that Ukraine has some of the world’s best soil quality thanks to a high concentration of black soil. That is why, in his view, Ukrainian agricultural land should eventually be priced on par with the most expensive land in Europe.
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