Russia may target the Kyiv-Chop highway and supply routes from Poland: ISW warns of risks
27 May 10:20
Russia may be preparing strikes on key logistics routes in western Ukraine, particularly the M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway, which connects Kyiv with the western regions and leads to the border with Poland. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have raised this possibility, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to the ISW, Moscow may use claims of alleged Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace as a pretext to launch “retaliatory strikes” from Belarusian territory. This would allow Russian forces to attack critical transport corridors in western and northwestern Ukraine, which are currently more difficult to strike from Russian territory.
Why the Kyiv–Chop Highway Is Important
The M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway is one of Ukraine’s main transportation arteries. It runs through the western regions and connects the capital with the border areas of Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.
This route is vital for the movement of civilian transport, cargo, humanitarian aid, and logistics between the central and western regions of the country.
That is why, according to analysts, if Belarus is used as a launchpad for drones, Russia may attempt to strike not only cities but also roads, transportation hubs, railway junctions, and logistics routes.
What ISW Says
ISW analysts note that Belarusian territory would give Russia the ability to conduct sustained drone strikes against Ukraine’s ground lines of communication in the west and northwest.
These are the so-called GLOCs—ground lines of communication—which facilitate the movement of people, cargo, equipment, and aid.
The report notes that launching drones from Belarus could enable Russian forces to more accurately target:
- the M-06 Kyiv–Chop highway;
- key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine;
- the railway connection between Poland and Ukraine;
- transport hubs;
- logistics hubs;
- freight convoys.
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Why Belarus Could Be Dangerous
Russian troops are already attacking western regions of Ukraine from Russian territory. However, as analysts note, the launch of drones from Belarus could pose additional risks to Ukraine.
First, geographically, Belarus is located closer to a number of important transport routes in northern and western Ukraine.
Second, this could allow Russian forces to use Shahed-type remotely piloted drones and cheaper “Molniya” drones with greater precision against moving targets.
Third, not only stationary targets but also vehicles moving along key logistics corridors could be at risk.
What targets may be at risk
According to ISW’s assessment, potential targets could include sections of roads where traffic slows down or congregates. Such locations are particularly vulnerable to drone attacks.
These include:
- intersections and interchanges;
- sections near bridges;
- access roads to logistics centers;
- railway junctions;
- freight transport routes;
- roads leading to border crossings;
- supply routes from Poland.
Such strikes can have not only tactical but also strategic effects, as they can complicate the delivery of military, humanitarian, and other aid.
ISW mentions a strike on a freight train near Korosten
Analysts also point to reports from Ukrainian officials regarding a strike on a freight train near Korosten in the Zhytomyr region. According to this information, a Russian drone operator based in Belarus may have carried out an FPV-controlled Shahed strike on a Ukrainian freight train.
Korosten is located approximately 50 kilometers south of the Belarusian border. This example, according to analysts, may indicate Russia’s interest in striking Ukrainian logistics in rear regions.
Why would Russia target logistics?
Strikes on transport routes may be aimed at complicating the movement of goods between the western border and central regions of Ukraine.
For Russia, such attacks may have several objectives:
- disrupt the supply of aid from Poland;
- to create an additional burden on logistics;
- force Ukraine to reroute its routes;
- to complicate the transport of goods by rail and road;
- to increase psychological pressure on the civilian population and businesses.
The routes connecting Ukraine with Poland remain particularly important, as a significant portion of international aid arrives via the western route.
Russia may be laying the informational groundwork
ISW also notes that statements by Belarusian officials regarding alleged Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace may be part of an information campaign.
Analysts suggest that Russia may use such reports as a pretext for further utilizing Belarusian territory for its own military purposes.
This does not necessarily mean directly involving Belarus in combat operations, but rather the possibility of launching drones, deploying operators, or creating conditions for attacks on Ukrainian supply routes.
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