A Chance for Peace: Will the War End in the Summer of 2026?
12 May 18:43
The last weeks of May and the beginning of June 2026 are shaping up to be a decisive period in determining the format of future negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. While the media discusses rumors of a possible “freeze” on the front lines, experts point to complex diplomatic maneuvering between Washington, Brussels, and Moscow.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s rhetoric has shifted dramatically: from threats to “capture capitals,” Moscow has moved to vague hints of an “approaching end,” attempting to lure the West into a peace deal that would be advantageous to itself.
Will 2026 be the year of a “grand bargain,” or are we merely witnessing a regrouping of forces ahead of a new round of escalation? Is the U.S. really planning to shift the “political burden” of the war onto Europe, and is Brussels ready for such responsibility? What is really behind the Kremlin’s statements about “accumulated achievements” and “the approaching finale”? The answers are in the article "Komersant Ukrainian".
In an exclusive commentary, Lyudmila Pokrovshchuk, an expert on foreign and domestic policy and a Ph.D., discussed the pitfalls of the current negotiation process and the role of global players in setting “deadlines” for Ukraine.
The “negotiation track” format: who will be at the table?
The architecture of future contacts is being defined right now. The main question is whether the negotiation process will remain unified, or whether Russia will achieve its goal of dividing the allies.
“We are at a point where it is being decided whether this will be a trilateral track (Ukraine—U.S.—Russia) or whether Europe will follow a separate path. The Russians are seeking a separate dialogue with the Europeans to weaken the West’s united position,” notes Pokrovshchuk.
One of the most alarming scenarios is a possible shift in U.S. strategy. Lyudmila Pokrovshchuk points out that Washington has already shifted the main financial and economic burden of supporting Ukraine onto the EU. Now a similar situation could repeat itself on the political front.
“So that it doesn’t turn out like what the Americans did when they shifted the entire economic burden onto the Europeans. So that here… they don’t shift the heaviest burden again, as they did with the economic front, but this time the political front—shifting it to Europe and having the Europeans pick it up,” says Pokrovshchuk.
Given the difficult election campaign in the U.S., the administration may try to shift the “political burden” of the negotiations to Europe to minimize its own electoral risks. European leaders, judging by their latest statements, are already preparing for such a scenario.
Political Pressure: The Role of the U.S., China, and the Middle East
According to the expert, it is the United States that currently possesses the strongest political levers of influence, which extend far beyond the Ukrainian issue. The fate of the war may be decided in conjunction with other geopolitical hotspots:
- The Middle East: Conflicts in this region are part of a larger bargaining process between the US and Russia.
- The China factor: Donald Trump’s negotiations in China will be a crucial step, as the Russian-Ukrainian war has already been identified as one of the key topics.
“It is precisely these political levers of influence that the American side currently possesses… What is important now in diplomacy is for Ukraine’s political leadership to work with those who can exert political pressure on the Russian Federation,” concludes Lyudmila Pokrovshchuk.
Is Russia ready for compromises?
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin’s remarks about the war against Ukraine allegedly nearing its end are linked to “progress” in the peace process and U.S. mediation efforts. At the same time, the Kremlin did not specify any concrete deadlines.
“The progress made in the peace process allows us to say that the end is indeed approaching. But it is not yet possible to speak of any specifics in this context,” Peskov said.
He also emphasized that Russia allegedly “remains open to contact,” and that after the end of the “humanitarian ceasefire,” the so-called “special military operation” continues. Separately, the Kremlin spokesperson repeated Moscow’s traditional statements that the war could end “at any moment” if Kyiv makes the “necessary decisions.”
Despite Peskov’s rhetoric about “openness to dialogue,” Russia’s actual position remains unchanged and uncompromising. The Kremlin’s key demand remains the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Donbas region, which is absolutely unacceptable to Ukraine.
Currently, Moscow is publicly insisting on the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the expert highlights the specific nature of Russian propaganda:
“The Russians will always put forward maximalist demands, but if it is in their interest to agree to certain terms, they will easily present any outcome as a ‘victory’ for their domestic audience.”
Therefore, the main task of Ukrainian diplomacy is to work as effectively as possible with the American side. It is important to prevent the political process from becoming completely isolated within the European track alone and to use global contradictions between major powers to strengthen Ukraine’s own position.
