Diesel prices in Ukraine have started to fall: when can we expect lower prices at gas stations?
11 May 13:24
Diesel fuel prices have begun to fall in Ukraine following a sharp reversal in the global market. Major gas station chains were the first to lower their prices: at “Green” stations, fuel became 2 UAH/liter cheaper, while “Ukrnafta” reduced its price by 1 UAH/liter. According to a forecast by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the “A-95 Consulting Group,” the decline may become more noticeable going forward. Serhiy Kuyun wrote about this on his Facebook page, reports "Komersant Ukrainian"
What is happening with diesel prices
According to the expert, the rise in fuel prices has effectively stopped, and the market is shifting toward a decline. He reported that some gas station chains have already begun revising their prices.
“The ‘green’ chains are down 2 UAH/liter, and Ukrnafta is down 1. I think there will be more to come,” noted Serhiy Kuyun.
According to him, the main reason for the price drop is the turnaround in the global market. Following the previous price spike, oil and petroleum products began to fall in price, and this is gradually being reflected in the Ukrainian fuel market.
How low could diesel prices drop at gas stations?
Kuyun reported that wholesale shipments of diesel fuel are starting at approximately 74 UAH/liter. According to his estimate, this corresponds to a retail price at gas stations of 80–82 UAH/liter over the next 7–10 days.
For comparison, the average price of diesel the day before was about 89 UAH/liter. In other words, if the situation develops favorably, drivers may see a more noticeable price drop in the near future.
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Why fuel prices don’t drop instantly
Despite the drop in wholesale prices, retail prices at gas stations do not always change immediately. The fuel market operates on the basis of inventories that traders purchased earlier—often at higher prices.
That is why the price drop may occur gradually: first, the wholesale segment reacts, then large chains, and eventually the broader retail market.
According to Kuyun, prices will fall as quickly as the market situation allows.
The fuel market has been “thrown into turmoil”
The expert noted that recent fluctuations have hit traders hard. Some companies purchased large volumes of fuel at peak prices and are now forced to sell it amid the market reversal.
According to Kuyun, the current crisis has brought the market neither profits nor stability. On the contrary, it has intensified competition among gas station chains.
“Ukrnafta” has increased sales
Serhiy Kuyun also highlighted the situation with Ukrnafta. He noted that the company increased sales by 1.5 times over two months and rose from third to first place in the ranking of fuel retailers.
This means that other market participants have lost some of their market share. Consequently, the battle for every liter of fuel may become even fiercer, and this, according to the expert, will be one of the factors driving a faster decline in prices.
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What will happen to prices next
Kuyun predicts that the decline in diesel prices may continue. At the same time, the pace of the decline will depend on several factors:
- global prices for crude oil and petroleum products;
- the cost of wholesale shipments;
- remaining fuel stocks purchased at high prices;
- competition among gas station chains;
- exchange rates and logistics costs.
The expert cites 80–82 UAH/liter at gas stations as the immediate benchmark for the market, assuming that wholesale shipments at 74 UAH/liter do indeed reach the retail segment quickly.
Why this matters for drivers and businesses
Diesel fuel directly affects not only car owners’ expenses but also logistics, the agricultural sector, transportation, and commodity prices. If diesel becomes cheaper, this could partially ease the pressure on businesses and consumers.
However, a sharp return to previous prices is not yet guaranteed. Kuyun himself notes that many would like to see prices drop to 60 UAH/liter or even lower, but the actual pace of the decline will depend on market conditions.
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