Ukraine could lose over €1 billion in exports: EU plans to cut steel import quotas
18 May 19:35
Ukrainian manufacturers and officials have stated that the European Union’s plans to cut steel import quotas by 47% could deal a serious blow to Ukraine’s economy and deprive the country of critically important export revenues during the war with Russia. Ukraine could lose more than €1 billion in export revenue. This was reported by the Financial Times, as cited by "Komersant Ukrainian"
The European Union has announced that starting July 1, it will cut steel import quotas by nearly half, and a 50% tariff will apply to volumes exceeding the established limit.
“The decision is explained by a global surplus of production capacity and a sharp increase in steel imports, which has already led to the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in the European steel industry,” the publication writes.
However, Ukrainian producers warn that the new restrictions could effectively shut them out of the European market.
“They will completely destroy any possibility for Ukrainian companies to supply products to the European market,” said Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the CEO’s office at Metinvest.
According to him, the company, which accounts for more than half of Ukraine’s steel exports to the EU, sees no real alternatives to the European market.
Under WTO rules, the new restrictions will apply to all EU trading partners, including Ukraine, despite the free trade agreement between Kyiv and Brussels. Ukrainian officials also emphasize that the new quotas contradict the existing trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which does not provide for tariff restrictions.
“The European Commission is currently negotiating with Ukraine and about 20 other countries regarding the allocation of new quotas. According to the FT, during preliminary talks in Geneva, the European Commission offered Ukraine a duty-free quota of 713,000 tons of steel,” the publication writes.
For comparison: in 2025, Ukraine exported 2.65 million tons of steel products to the EU, and the EU itself remained the main market for Ukrainian steel.
The Ukrainian side warns that such a reduction—approximately 70% compared to last year—could cost the country up to €1 billion in export revenue at a time when Russia is intensifying its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and industry.
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The European Commission stated that it would “take into account Ukraine’s difficult situation” and promised a separate quota for Ukrainian suppliers, albeit “at a lower level than in previous years.” A representative of Metinvest also noted that Ukrainian steelmakers effectively have no ability to quickly pivot to other markets.
“We are looking at various markets, but Russians and Turkey are already there. Their electricity is ten times cheaper, and they aren’t being shelled or bombed every day. We don’t see a way to compete with them in their key markets. Our main market has always been Europe,” he explained.
At the same time, calls are already being made in the European Parliament to grant Ukraine special status. MEP Karin Karlsson, who is responsible for this dossier, stated that Ukraine should receive “very special treatment” as an EU candidate country facing an exceptional security situation.
“We have very high expectations that the European Commission will take this into account,” she emphasized.
Free Trade Between Ukraine and the EU
As a reminder, the European Union temporarily suspended tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products in June 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion. The quotas were suspended because Russian occupiers posed a threat to Ukraine’s traditional maritime trade routes.
According to NBU estimates, net export losses, taking into account continued trade beyond the quota and a shift toward markets in other countries during June–December, will amount to approximately $800 million.
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