Ukraine is reducing its sugar beet acreage: is the market facing a shortage?
1 June 18:07
In Ukraine, a smaller area than usual has been planted with sugar beets this year. "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated how this will affect the harvest and the needs of processors, whether there will be a sugar shortage, and how much it will cost.
In 2024, Ukrainian sugar producers set a historic record for sugar exports, shipping 746,300 tons to foreign markets.
In 2026, there is reason to talk about another record. Experts say that sugar beets have not been sown in such small quantities as this spring for the past 35 years. There is an explanation for this, and it will have consequences. But Ukrainians, who still cannot do without sugar, have no cause for concern: the country will have enough of the sweet product.
Less acreage – more problems
The Ministry of Economy reported last week that 187,900 hectares have been planted with sugar beets in Ukraine. This is 5% less than Ukrainian officials had hoped for.
But it is more than the U.S. Department of Agriculture had forecast: they expected that 183,000 hectares would be planted with sugar beets in Ukraine during the 2026/27 marketing year, which is 9% less than the previous season’s figure.
Other forecasts in the USDA report are also negative: the sugar beet harvest is expected to be 9.6 million tons, a 17% decrease, and sugar production in Ukraine is projected at 1.4 million tons, which is 21% less than in the 2025/26 marketing year.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club notes that sugar beet and sugar production in Ukraine is undergoing changes primarily due to external trade restrictions.
They note:
“Following the introduction of quotas on sugar exports to EU countries, exports in the 2024/25 marketing year fell to 629,000 tons, a 14.2% decrease from the previous period.”
Since it was not possible to quickly redirect exports to other countries, experts note that this is leading to a reduction in the area under cultivation and a decline in overall production.
Lyudmila Parkhomenko, a leading research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Markets and International Integration at the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agricultural Economics” and a Candidate of Economic Sciences, cites several other negative factors contributing to the reduction in sugar beet acreage.
“Objective factors include the high production costs of root crops and sugar, the drop in global sugar prices, the reduction in sugar export quotas for domestic producers to EU countries, as well as unfavorable weather conditions during the spring planting season. Obviously, the Russian Federation’s full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine is also having a negative impact. Subjective factors include farms shifting toward growing more profitable and less costly crops,” the expert notes.
According to her, the significant reduction in the area planted with sugar beets in the current growing season cannot be offset by higher root crop yields.
Under favorable weather conditions and the use of intensive technologies in sugar beet cultivation, the gross harvest of root crops, according to preliminary estimates by scientists at the Institute of Agricultural Economics, will decrease by approximately 10% compared to 2025—to over 10 million tons. And this shortfall will be felt, first and foremost, by processors. Lyudmila Parkhomenko continues.
“For sugar factories, a decrease in the gross harvest of root crops will mean a significant shortening of the sugar-making season. Due to the raw material shortage, processing enterprises will not be able to utilize their production capacity for the full processing season, which will lead to a decrease in the number of operating sugar factories. The shortening of the sugar-making season will increase the cost of the final product—sugar,” the expert notes.
But there are also positive factors that “sweeten” the assessments and expectations.
No shortage, but new prices
Transitional sugar stocks accumulated over previous production seasons should help maintain the country’s sugar balance. They are estimated at around 700,000 tons. According to the Institute of Agricultural Economics, the presence of such reserves will offset the current decline in sugar beet and sugar production and prevent a drop in foreign trade volumes for this agricultural product. These reserves will also help meet domestic demand. In other words, a sugar shortage in Ukraine is not expected in 2026.
Lyudmila Parkhomenko, a leading researcher in the Department of Agricultural Markets and International Integration at the Institute of Agricultural Economics, explains.
“According to forecast calculations, sugar factories will produce 1.4 million tons of sugar during the current production season. Combined with significant carryover stocks of 700,000 tons, the total supply will amount to 2,100,000 tons of sugar, with domestic consumption at 900,000 tons per year. Thus, in 2026, not only will the domestic market be fully supplied with domestically produced sugar, but it will also be possible to develop significant export potential,” says the expert.
According to forecasts by researchers at the Institute of Agricultural Economics, domestic prices for sugar beets and sugar are expected to rise in 2026. For farmers who planted sugar beets in their fields this year, this is a positive forecast. A reduction in the raw material supply will stimulate competition among sugar factories for raw materials, leading to higher purchase prices for sugar beets.
On the other hand, sugar consumers will have yet another reason—in the form of price—to reconsider their habits.
According to forecasts by experts at the Institute of Agricultural Economics, in the medium term—that is, during the fall and winter—an increase in wholesale and retail sugar prices can be expected on the domestic market.
